Housing Paused in April: May 20 – 24

Home sales—and overall economic activity—were sluggish in April.  Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 24.

#1Existing home sales slowed in April. The National Association of Realtors tells us that sales of previously owned homes slipped 0.4 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 5.190 million units. Sales grew 1.8 percent in the West but had slowed 4.5 percent in the Northeast and 0.4 percent in the South while holding even in the Midwest. Existing home sales were 4.4 percent below their year-ago sales pace, with negative 12-month comparables in all four Census regions. Home supplies improved a bit (but remained tight) as the count of unsold homes grew 9.6 percent to 1.830 million units. This was up 1.7 percent from a year earlier and the equivalent to a 4.2 month supply of homes. The median sales price of $267,300 represented a 3.6 percent increase over the past year. NAR’s press release noted that “job creation is improving, causing wage growth to align with home price growth, which helps affordability and will help spur more home sales.”

#2…As did new home sales. Sales of new single-family homes dropped 6.9 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 673,000 homes, per the Census Bureau. Even with the drop, new home sales were up 7.0 percent versus a year earlier and were near a post-recession high. Sales slumped in three of four Census regions during the month: West (-8.3 percent), Midwest (-7.4 percent), and South (-7.3 percent). All four regions enjoyed positive 12-month sales comparables. There were 332,000 unsold new homes available for sale at the end of April, down 0.9 percent from March, up 11.0 percent from a year earlier, and the equivalent to a 5.9 month supply.

#3Economic activity pulled back in April. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 economic indicators indexed such that a reading 0.00 signals the U.S. economy was growing at its historical average—lost 50-basis points during the month to a reading of -0.45. Only 33 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI while the other 52 made negative contributions. The contributions from three of four major categories of indicators declined during the month: production (down 40-basis points to -0.44), consumption/housing (down five basis points to a neutral contribution), and sales/orders/production (down five basis points to +0.01). Indicators tied to employment improved slightly with a one-basis point gain to +0.04. The CFNAI’s three-month moving average shed 38-basis points to -0.22, suggesting the U.S. economy was expanding at a below average rate.

#4Transportation goods—and in particular civilian craft—led to a drop in durable goods orders. The Census Bureau estimates the value of new orders of manufactured new goods slumped 2.1 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted $248.5 billion New orders for transportation goods fell 5.9 percent as civilian aircraft orders slowed 25.1 percent and motor vehicle orders declined 3.4 percent. Net of transportation goods, new orders were unchanged for the month at $163.0 billion. Rising during the month were orders for computers (+4.0 percent), electrical equipment/appliances (+0.9 percent), fabricated metal products (+0.4 percent), and machinery (+0.1 percent). New orders contracted for communications equipment (-5.5 percent) and primary metals (-0.8 percent). Also slumping was a proxy for business investment—civilian non-aircraft capital goods—as it dropped 0.9 percent.

#5Jobless claims remained relatively sparse in mid-May. The Department of Labor reports that there were a seasonally adjusted 211,000 first-time claims made for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending May 18, down 1,000 from the prior week and 16,000 from the same week a year earlier. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims shrank by 4,750 during the week to 220,250. While up 1.0 percent from the same week a year earlier, the measure remains close to its nearly five-decade low. 1.565 million people were receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending May 4, off 3.6 percent from the same week a year earlier.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
FOMC Minute

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.

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