Payrolls Expand for the 86th Straight Month: December 4 – 8

Employers continued to expand their payrolls this fall. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending December 8.

#1Hiring remained solid in November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 228,000 during the month, following a gain of 244,000 during October. In all, payrolls have expanded by 2.071 million over the past year and have increased in each of the past 86 months. The goods-producing side of the economy added 62,000 jobs during November, led by manufacturing (+31,000) and construction (+24,000). The private service sector added 159,000 workers, with large increases seen in professional/business services (+46,000), health care/social assistance (+40,500), retail (+18,700), and leisure/hospitality (+14,000). The average workweek length increased by 1/10th of an hour to 34.5 hours (November 2016: 34.3 hours) while average weekly earnings grew by $4.38 to $915.98 (+3.1 percent versus November 2016).Payroll Gains 2011-2017 120817

Meanwhile, a separate household survey finds the unemployment rate held steady at its 17-year low of 4.1 percent (seasonally adjusted) The civilian labor force grew by 148,000, but the labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent. The labor force participation rate for adults aged 25 to 54 increased by 2/10ths of a percentage point to 81.8 percent (matching September as its highest point in nearly seven years). The median length of unemployment fell by 3/10ths of a week to 9.6 weeks (November 2016: 10.2 weeks) while the count of part-time workers seeking a full-time job grew slightly by 48,000 to 4.801 million (November 2016; 5.659 million). Finally, the broadest measure of labor underutilization (the U-6 series) inched up by 1/10th of a percentage point to 8.0 percent, just above its post-recession low.

#2Rising imports in October led to the largest trade deficit since January. Exports essentially held steady during the month at $195.9 billion (+5.6 percent versus October 2016) while imports jumped by $3.8 billion to $244.6 billion (+7.0 percent versus October 2016). As a result, the trade deficit expanded by $3.8 billion to -$48.7 billion according to the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis. The goods deficit also grew by $3.8 billion to -$69.1 billion (+9.0 percent versus October 2016) while the services surplus held firm at +$20.3 billion (also virtually unchanged from a year earlier). In the case of the former, imports grew for crude oil (+$1.5 billion) and consumer goods (+$0.8 billion). Meanwhile, a $2.6 billion rise in industrial supplies/materials exports was counterbalanced by declining exports of soybeans (-$1.4 billion) and civilian aircraft (-$1.1 billion). The U.S. has its largest goods deficits with China (-$31.9 billion), the European Union (-$12.0 billion), Mexico (-$6.0 billion), and Japan (-$5.3 billion).

#3The service industry grew at a slower pace during November. The headline index from the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Report on Business slumped 2.7 points during the month to a reading of 57.4. Despite the decline, this was the 95th straight month in which the NMI was above a reading of 50.0 (indicative of a growing service sector). All four components of the measure fell during the month: new orders (-4.1 points), supplier deliveries (-4.0 points), employment (-2.2 points), and business activity/production (8/10ths of a point). Sixteen of 18 tracked service sector industries expanded during November, led by retail, wholesale trade, and utilities. The press release noted that survey respondents’ comments “indicate that the economy and sector will continue to grow for the remainder of the year.”

#4Factory orders sputtered in October. The Census Bureau reports that new orders for manufactured goods slipped 0.1 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted $479.6 billion. Even with the decline, this represented a 3.7 percent increase from the same month a year earlier. Transportation orders fell 4.2 percent as orders for civilian and defense aircraft slumped 18.5 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively. Net of transportation goods, orders jumped 0.8 percent for the month and was 6.8 percent ahead of year-ago levels. Growing for the month were new orders for machinery (+1.9 percent), electrical equipment/appliances (+0.8 percent), computers/electronics (+0.7 percent), and nondurable goods (+0.7 percent). New orders for nondefense capital goods net of aircraft (a proxy for business investment) gained 0.3 percent during October and has risen 9.6 percent over the past year. Shipments grew for the tenth time in 11 months with a 0.6 percent increase to $484.2 billion. Unfilled orders were essentially unchanged for the month at $1.135 trillion while inventories grew for the 11th time in 12 months with a 0.2 percent increase at $661.6 billion.

#5Q3 productivity growth remained solid after a revision The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates nonfarm business sector productivity grew 3.0 percent during the quarter, matching the previous estimate of Q3 productivity reported a month earlier and the most significant gain in productivity since Q3 2014. This was the result of a 4.1 percent rise in output generated by a 1.1 percent gain in the number of hours worked during the quarter. Even with the bounce during the quarter, productivity has grown by a mere 1.5 percent over the past year. Manufacturing sector production fell 4.4 percent during the quarter, split by falls of -4.7 percent and -4.4 percent for durable and nondurable manufacturing, respectively. 

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending December 2, 2017, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 236,000 (-2,000 vs. previous week; -15,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 241,500 (-3.4% vs. the same week a year earlier).
Consumer Credit (October 2017, Outstanding Consumer Credit Balances (net of mortgages and other real estate-backed loans), seasonally adjusted): $3.802 trillion (+$20.5 billion vs. September 2017 +5.4% vs. October 2016).
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December 2017-preliminary, Index (1966Q1=100), seasonally adjusted): 96.8 (vs. November 2017: 98.5; vs. December 2016: 98.2).
Wholesale Inventories (October 2017, Inventories of Merchant Wholesalers, seasonally adjusted): $605.3 billion (-0.5% vs. September 2017, +3.9% vs. October 2016).

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current and previous employers. No endorsements are implied.

Job Openings Hit a New Record: August 7 – 11.

Employers have many unfilled jobs while inflation remains subdued. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending August 11.

#1Even with a record level of job openings, the pace of hiring sputtered in June as employers are unable to fill Thomas roles. There were a seasonally adjusted 6.163 million job openings on the final day of June, up 461,000 from May, 11.3 percent from a year earlier, and the most reported in the 17-year history of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data series. This included 5.588 million private sector job openings, which represented a 12.0 percent increase from June 2016. Industries reporting the largest percentage gains in job openings over the past year include construction (+31.6 percent), wholesale trade (+28.5 percent), financial activities (+22.6 percent), professional/business services (+16.0 percent), and accommodation/food services (+11.9 percent). Yet, employers were struggling to fill those positions. Hiring declined by 103,000 during the month to 5.356 million. This was up 3.5 percent from the number of people hired during June 2016. Private sector employers hired 5.026 million people during the month, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier. The industries with the largest year-to-year percentage increases in hiring included manufacturing (+25.2 percent), construction (+15.0 percent), and professional/business services (+14.6 percent). 5.224 million people left their job during June, off by 21,000 for the month, but 5.7 percent the year ago count. 3.314 million people voluntarily quit their jobs (+5.2 percent versus June 2016) while the 1.701 million people laid off was up 5.7 percent from the same month a year earlier.Nonfarm Job Openings 2007-2017 081117

#2Consumer prices eke out a small gain during July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1 percent during the month, after having been unchanged during June. Energy CPI declined for the fifth time in six months, albeit with a small 0.1 percent drop. Gasoline prices were unchanged during July while electricity prices grew 0.4 percent. Food prices gained 0.2 percent during July, the fifth time over the past six months with a monthly increase of at least 0.2 percent. Net of energy and food, core CPI gained 0.1 percent for a fourth consecutive month. Growing were prices for medical care commodities (+1.0 percent), medical care services (+0.3 percent), apparel (+0.3 percent), and transportation services (+0.2 percent). Meanwhile, prices for both new and used cars/trucks dropped 0.5 percent. Both headline and core CPI have grown 1.7 percent over the past year, each under the Federal Reserve’s two-percent target rate for inflation.

#3Wholesale prices declined during July. The final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) slipped 0.1 percent during the month, following a 0.1 percent increase in June. The core measure, which nets out energy, food, and trade services, held steady during the month. PPI for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent. The measure for wholesale energy goods decreased 0.3 percent (wholesale gasoline prices fell 1.3 percent) while that for food was unchanged during July. Meanwhile, final demand PPI for services dropped 0.2 percent, pulled down by declines for transportation/warehousing (-0.8 percent) and trade (i.e., retailer and wholesaler margins, -0.5 percent). Over the past year, both the headline and core measure of final demand PPI has grown just under the Federal Reserve’s target with a 1.9 percent increase.

#4Productivity growth was soft during Q2, which was an improvement over Q1’s stagnation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics finds nonbusiness labor productivity edged up 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis during April, May, and June, a gain from the productivity being unchanged during the first quarter. Output grew 3.4 percent during the quarter while hours worked gained 2.5 percent. Unit labor costs edged up 0.6 percent during the quarter. Over the past year, nonfarm productivity grew by a tepid 1.2 percent. The manufacturing sector presented a bright picture with a 2.5 percent productivity gain, led by a sharp 3.8 percent surge in durable goods manufacturing productivity. Productivity of nondurable manufacturing slipped 0.1 percent during Q2.

#5Small Business Owner Sentiment Rebounded During July. The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business improved for the first time in six months with a 1.6 point increase to a seasonally adjusted 105.2 (1986 = 100). This was the measure’s best reading since February and up 10.6 points from a year earlier. Seven of the index’s ten components improved from their June readings, led by measures for current job openings (up five points), expected real sales (up five points), plans to increase employment (up four points), and expected future economic conditions (up four points). Only two of the index components declined during the month: plans to make capital outlays (down two points) and expected credit conditions (off a point). The press release noted that “Main Street was buoyed by stronger customer demand despite the dysfunction in Washington, D.C.”

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending August 5, 2017, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 244,000 (+3,000 vs. previous week; -19,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 241,000 (-8.2% vs. the same week a year earlier).
Consumer Credit (June 2017, Outstanding Consumer Credit Balances (net of mortgages and other real-estate backed debt, seasonally adjusted): $3.856 trillion (+$12.4 billion vs. May 2017, +5.7% vs. June 2016).
Federal Government Treasury Budget (June 2017, Surplus/Deficit): -$42.9 billion (vs. June 2016: -$90.2 billion, July 2017 -$112.8 billion). 1st ten months of FY2017: -$566.0 billion (vs. 1st ten months of FY2016: -$512.0 billion).
Wholesale Inventories (June 2017, Inventories of Merchant Wholesalers, seasonally adjusted): $599.4 billion (+0.7% vs. May 2017, +2.8% vs. June 2016).

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current and previous employers. No endorsements are implied.

Employers’ Inability to Find Qualified Candidates Slows Hiring: June 5 – 9.

A lack of qualified candidates weighed on hiring during April. Here are the 5 things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending June 9.

#1Even with a record number of job openings, hiring slowed in April. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there were a seasonally adjusted 6.044 million job openings at the end of the month, up 259,000 for the month, 7.1 percent from a year earlier, and the highest count ever recorded in the 16+ year history of the data series. The private sector had 5.464 million jobs available, up 240,000 from March and 6.7 percent from April 2016. Among the industries reporting significant year-to-year percentage gains in job openings were professional/business services (+15.0 percent), accommodations/food services (+13.3 percent), financial activities (+11.0 percent), leisure/hospitality (+10.6 percent), and construction (+10.3 percent). Employers continued to experience significant difficulty in filling these jobs. Employers hired 5.051 million people during April, down 253,000 from March and up a measly 0.3 percent from a year earlier. Private sector companies brought 4.718 million people onto their payrolls during the month, up 0.7 percent from a year earlier. Also slowing during the month were the number of job separations with 4.973 million people leaving their jobs during the month, a 225,000 decline from March. This included voluntary quits sinking by 109,000 to 3.027 million (+4.3 percent vs. April 2016). Layoffs decreased by 71,000 to 1.590 million, 4.7 percent below the year ago levels.

job openings and hiring 2011-2017-060917

#2New factory orders contracted during April for the first time in 2017. Census Bureau data indicate that new orders for manufactured goods declined 0.2 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted $469.0 billion. This was up 3.8 percent from a year earlier. April’s decline following month-to-month increases of 0.8 percent and 1.0 percent in February and March, respectively. Transportation goods orders fell 1.4 percent as a 9.1 percent drop civilian aircraft orders outweighed a 0.6 percent gain in orders of automobiles. Net of transportation goods, new orders edged up 0.1 percent during April to $390.6 billion (+6.0 percent vs. April 2016). Orders for computers/electronic products jumped 1.6 percent during the month while falling were orders of electrical equipment/appliances (-2.0 percent), fabricated metals (-1.0 percent), primary metals (-0.7 percent), machinery (-0.7 percent), and furniture (-0.2 percent). Orders of civilian nonaircraft capital goods (a proxy for business investment) inched up 0.1 percent during the month and was 3.0 percent above year earlier levels.

#3The service sector hummed along at a slightly slower growth rate in May. The headline index from the Institute for Supply Management’s Report on Business for the nonmanufacturing sector of the economy decreased by 6/10ths of a point to 56.9. The NMI has been above a reading of 50.0—indicative of an expanding service sector—for 89 consecutive months. Three of the four index components declined during the month: new orders (down 5.5 points to 57.7), business activity (down 1.7 points to 60.7), and supplier deliveries (down 1.5 points to 51.5). On the flipside, the employment index surged 6.4 points to 57.8. Seventeen of the 18 tracked nonmanufacturing sectors expanded during the month, led by real estate, construction, and accommodation/food services. The press release noted that survey respondents were “continu[ing] to indicate optimism about business conditions and the overall economy.”

#4Productivity gains were nonexistent during Q1, but that is an improvement from a previous estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics raised its previously published estimate of labor productivity from saying it had shrunk 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to now reporting it had held steady during the quarter. This was the result of output and the number of hours worked both having grown at an annualized rate of 1.7 percent during the quarter. Over the past year, labor productivity increased an anemic 1.2 percent with output expanding 2.5 percent and hours worked growing 1.3 percent. Also increasing was productivity in the manufacturing sector, with the previously reported 0.4 percent bump raised to a 0.5 percent increase during Q1. Productivity gained 2.7 percent for nondurable goods manufacturing but contracted 0.7 percent for durable goods manufacturing.

#5Consumer debt levels grew at a slower pace during April. Per the Federal Reserve, outstanding consumer debt balances (net of mortgages and other real estate-backed debt) totaled $3.821 trillion at the end of April, up $8.2 billion for the month and 5.8% from a year earlier. This was the smallest single-month gain in credit balances since December 2015. Nonrevolving credit balances grew by $6.7 billion to $2.810 trillion. While this also was their smallest single-month increase since late 2015, nonrevolving credit balances (e.g., college loans, car loans) have expanded 5.7 percent over the past year. Revolving credit balances (e.g., credit cards) grew at its slowest pace in three months (+$1.5 billion) to $1.010 trillion (+5.7 percent vs. April 2016).

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending June 3, 2017, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 245,000, -10,000 vs. previous week; -20,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 242,000 (-10.2 percent vs. the same week a year earlier).
Wholesale Trade (April 2017, Wholesale Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $591.0 billion (-0.5% vs. March 2017, +1.6% vs. April 2016).

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current and previous employers. No endorsements are implied.