High gas prices led to record-low consumer sentiment in May. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 22.
Consumer confidence deteriorated further in May. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.0 points to a seasonally adjusted 44.8 (1966Q1=100). This marked the all-time low for the data series (last month’s reading was the previous low point). The current conditions index fell 6.7 points to 45.8 (-22.2 percent), while the expectations measure slumped 4.0 points to 44.1 (-7.9 percent). Nearly three in five survey respondents “spontaneously” commented that “high prices were eroding their personal finances.” Consumers expect prices to rise 4.8 percent over the next year, with longer-term annual inflation at 3.9 percent.
Forward-looking economic measures improved slightly in April. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.1 point to 97.4 (2016=100). The index has declined 0.7 percent over the past six months. Seven of ten LEI components contributed positively to the index, led by stock prices, building permits, and the interest rate spread. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.3 points in the month and 0.8 percent over the past six months to 115.6. All four CEI components contributed positively to the index. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) gained half a point to 120.8 (+0.8 percent over the past six months), with five of seven LAG components contributing positively. The Conference Board expects the U.S. to expand 1.7 percent in 2026.
Housing starts slowed in April. The Census Bureau reports that privately owned home starts declined 2.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.465 million units. Despite the drop, housing starts were 4.6 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. Single-family home starts plummeted 9.0 percent, while multi-family home starts jumped 14.3 percent. Looking ahead, the annualized number of building permits issued was 1.442 million, up 5.8 percent for the month but down 0.2 percent from a year earlier. Housing completions rose 4.8 percent to an annualized 1.449 million homes (-2.0 percent versus April 2025).
Homebuilders were less pessimistic in May. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index (HMI) rose three points to a seasonally adjusted 37. A reading below 50 indicates that more homebuilders view the housing market as “poor” than as “good.” The HMI has stayed within a tight range of 32 to 39 over the past year. The HMI improved in all four Census regions, with readings above 40 in both the Midwest (45) and Northeast (44). The indices for current single-family home sales (40), expected sales (45), and traffic of prospective homebuyers (25) also rose by three points. The press release also notes that 32 percent of homebuilders reduced prices, with an average reduction of six percent.
Home purchase contract signings edged up in April. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted 74.8 (2001=100). The National Association of Realtors measure was up 3.2 percent from a year earlier. The PHSI was up month-over-month in three regions, with the South the exception at a 0.7 percent decline. Similarly, the index has increased over the past year in three Census regions, with a 0.6 percent slip in the Northeast. The press release warns that “[u]nless supply meaningfully increases, home price growth could outpace wage growth and further erode the homeownership rate.”
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending May 16, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 209,000 (-3,000 vs. the previous week, -16,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 202,500 (-11.8% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- State Employment (March 2026, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Increased in 3 states and unchanged in 47 states and the District of Columbia vs. February 2026; Decreased in 3 states and the District of Columbia, increased in 3 states; and unchanged in 44 states vs. March 2025.
- Treasury International Capital (March 2026, Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities, not seasonally adjusted): +$96.5 billion (February 2026: +$130.0 billion; March 2025: +$183.0 billion).
- FOMC Minutes
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 