Not Keeping Up: What We Learned During the Week of May 25 – 29

Consumer spending wobbled in April, as inflation remained elevated. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 29. 

Growth in personal spending slowed in April. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, down from March’s 0.3 percent advance. Real goods spending slipped 0.1 percent (durable goods: unchanged; nondurables: +0.2 percent), while services expenditures grew 0.2 percent. Without inflation adjustments, nominal PCE rose 0.5 percent, even as nominal personal income held steady and nominal disposable income slipped 0.1 percent. Real disposable income slumped 0.5 percent. The savings rate fell to +2.6 percent, its lowest level since June 2022. The same report includes the closely watched inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, which grew 0.4 percent during the month and 3.8 percent over the past year. After removing energy and food, the core PCE Price Index increased 0.2 percent in April and 3.3 percent over the past year.

The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace than previously believed in Q1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This marked a sharp improvement from the final three months of 2025 but was a downward revision from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s original Q1 annualized estimate of 2.0 percent. The lower estimate resulted from downward revisions to the change in private inventories and consumer spending. Supporting Q1 economic growth were (in descending order): nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption, government expenditures, and the change in private inventories. Weighing down GDP were net exports and residential fixed investment. Corporate profits grew at an annualized 0.9 percent during the quarter and were up 12.0 percent over the past year. The BEA will revise its Q1 GDP and corporate profits estimates again in late June. 

U.S. economic activity picked up in April. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose 29 basis points to +0.14. A positive CFNAI indicates the U.S. economy is expanding faster than its historical pace. Forty-seven of the 85 components that make up the CFNAI contributed positively to the index, while the other 38 were drags. Production (+0.18) and sales/orders/inventories (+0.02) contributed positively to the CFNAI, while personal consumption/housing (-0.04) and employment (-0.02) negatively affected the measure. The CFNAI’s three-month moving average improved by one basis point to +0.03. 

Durable goods orders jumped in April. New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 7.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted $346.0 billion. Year-to-date, the Census Bureau measure has totaled $1.289 trillion, up 9.3 percent over the comparable 2025 period. Transportation goods orders surged 21.5 percent, including increases for civilian aircraft and motor vehicles. Excluding transportation goods, core durable goods orders jumped 1.1 percent for the month, with year-to-date orders 7.4 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. Orders grew for fabricated metal products (+3.5 percent), communications equipment (+3.1 percent), primary metals (+1.9 percent), electrical equipment/appliances (+0.6 percent), machinery (+0.5 percent), and computers (+0.3 percent).      

Consumer confidence slipped in May. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined 0.7 points to a seasonally adjusted 93.1 (1985=100). The index was at 98.4 one year ago. The current conditions index fell 3.2 points to 121.2, while the expectations measure improved by a full point to 74.4. Prices (particularly for oil and gas) and geopolitics were among the themes in respondents’ comments. 18.5 percent of consumers view business conditions as “good,” compared with 17.1 percent who say they are “bad.” 25.5 percent of survey respondents say jobs were “plentiful,” versus 18.6 percent who view them as “hard to get.”  

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending May 23, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 215,000 (+5,000 vs. the previous week, -21,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 209,000 (-8.7% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• New Home Sales (April 2026, Sales of New Single-Family Homes, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 622,000 (-6.2% vs. March 2026; -11.3% vs. April 2025).
• FHFA House Price Index (March 2026, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. February 2026; +1.7% vs. April 2025.
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (March 2026, National Index, seasonally adjusted): -0.2% vs. February 2026; +0.7% vs. March 2025.
• Agricultural Prices (April 2026, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): +2.3% vs. March 2026; -1.8% vs. April 2025.

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