The economy continued to grow during the early summer. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending July 24.
The U.S. economy expanded at its historical average in June. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose 17 basis points to -0.02. This was just below zero, a level that indicates the U.S. economy expanded near its historical average. (The CFNAI would need to be at or below -0.70 to signal a recession.) The CFNAI’s three-month moving average improved by five basis points to -0.05. During the month, 40 of 85 CFNAI components contributed positively to the index, while the other 45 pulled it down. Components related to sales/orders/inventories (+0.01) and personal consumption/housing (+0.05) contributed positively, while production (-0.05) and employment (-0.04) indicators weighed on the CFNAI.
However, forward-looking economic measures declined in June. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.2 percent to 99.1 (2016=100). The LEI has decreased 0.3 percent over the past six months, a small share of the 1.1 percent decline during the final six months of 2025. Five of 10 LEI components made positive contributions to the index, including the interest rate spread and the stock market. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) expanded 0.2 percent in June (and 0.4 percent over the first half of 2026) to 114.6 (2016=100). All four CEI components contributed positively, led by personal income and business sales. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) held steady at 120.5, leaving the index up 1.1 percent over the past six months. The group expects the U.S. economy to expand 1.9 percent this year.
New home sales improved modestly in June. Sales of new single-family homes grew 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted 628,000. The increase left the Census Bureau 5.6 percent below its year-ago pace. Sales improved during the month in three of four Census regions, with a 22.4 percent decline in the West the outlier. Conversely, only the Northeast posted a year-over-year sales increase. There were 485,000 unsold new homes on the market (-1.1 percent versus May 2026 and +3.3 percent versus June 2025), equivalent to a 9.3-month supply. The median sales price has fallen 2.7 percent over the past year to $398,300.
Layoffs slowed in mid-July. The Department of Labor estimates that there were 187,000 seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment insurance claims during the week ending July 18, down 22,000 from the previous week and 14.2 percent from the same week one year ago. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 207,500, 7.6 percent below year-ago levels. Continuing claims totaled 1.786 million during the week ending July 11, down 7.5 percent from a year earlier. 1.835 million people (not seasonally adjusted) were receiving some form of unemployment insurance during the week ending July 4, down 8.6 percent from a year earlier.
Payrolls expanded in only three states in June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that nonfarm payrolls grew in three states on a seasonally adjusted basis: New Hampshire (+0.6 percent), Minnesota (+0.4 percent), and Texas (+0.3 percent). Payrolls contracted by 1.2 percent in West Virginia during the month and “essentially” held steady in the other 46 states and the District of Columbia. Compared to June 2025, only four states have seen payroll employment growth: Nevada (+2.3 percent), Minnesota (+1.5 percent), Texas (+1.2 percent), and North Carolina (+1.2 percent). Payrolls shrank in the District of Columbia (-4.8 percent) and Virginia (-1.0 percent) over the past year.
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 