Hiring and Wages Both Rise in October: October 29 – November 2

Hiring resumed in October while consumer spending remained solid. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 2.

#1Job creation rebounded in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 250,000 during the month, up from the 118,000 job gain in September (which appeared to have been suppressed by the landfall of Hurricane Florence). Private sector employers added 246,000 workers during the month, split between 67,000 among goods-producing employers and 179,000 in the service sector. Industries adding the most workers during the month were health care/social assistance (+46,700), leisure/hospitality (+42,000), professional/business services (+35,000), manufacturing (+32,000), and construction (+30,000). The average workweek grew by 1/10th of an hour to 34.5 hours (October 2017: 34.4 hours) while average weekly earnings expanded by $4.45 to $941.85 (+3.4 percent versus a year earlier).

A separate household survey kept the unemployment rate at its post-recession low of 3.7 percent. 711,000 people entered the labor force during the month, putting the labor force participation rate of 62.9 percent. The labor force participation rate for adults aged 25 to 54 rose to 82.3, its highest point since the May 2010. The median length of unemployment inched up 2/10ths of a week to 9.4 weeks (October 2017: 9.8 weeks) while the number of part-time workers seeking a full-time opportunity held relatively stable during the month at 4.621 million (October 2017: 4.880 million). The broadest measure of labor underutilization (the “U-6” series) tied that from August with its lowest mark since before the recession at 7.4 percent.

#2Consumers continued spending in September. Real personal spending (adjusted for inflation) grew 0.3 percent during the month, slower than August’s 0.4 percent increase but matching the gains for every preceding month since April. The Census Bureau finds that spending on goods rose 0.7 percent, split between gains for durable and nondurable goods of 1.8 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Spending on services was flat during the month. Nominal consumer spending grew at a faster pace than had personal income (+0.3 percent versus +0.2 percent). Nominal personal income gained 0.2 percent while real personal income inched up 0.1 percent. As a result, the real savings rate shed 2/10ths of a percentage point to +6.2 percent. Over the past year, real personal consumption expenditures have grown 3.0 percent, just ahead of the 12-month comparable for real disposable personal income (+2.9 percent).

#3The trade deficit expanded further in September. The Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates exports grew 1.5 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted $212.6 billion (+7.2 percent versus September 2017) while imports also increased 1.5 percent to $266.6 billion (+9.8 percent versus September 2017). As a result, the U.S. trade deficit widened by 1.5 percent during the month to -$54.0 billion, 21.6 percent larger than the deficit during the same month a year earlier. The trade deficit for the first nine months of 2018 (-$445.2 billion) was 10.1 percent larger than that of the first nine months of 2017. The goods deficit expanded by $0.6 billion during September to -$77.2 billion while the services surplus shrank by $0.1 billion to +$23.2 billion. The U.S. had its largest goods deficit with China (-$37.4 billion), the European Union (-$14.2 billion), and Mexico (-$7.5 billion).

#4Manufacturing grew in October at its slowest pace since the spring. The headline index from the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Report on Business (PMI) shed 2.1 points during the month to a reading of 57.7, its lowest reading since April. Four of the PMI’s five components pulled back from their September marks: new orders, production, employment, and inventories. The measure of supplier deliveries was the sole PMI component to improve during the month. Thirteen of 18 manufacturing industries expanded during the month, led by textiles, electrical equipment/appliances, and apparel. The press release noted that comments received from survey respondents “reflect continued expanding business strength” but also that the “expansion of new exports orders softened.”

#5Factory orders grew in September, pulled up by the defense sector. The Census Bureau reports new orders for manufactured goods totaled a seasonally adjusted $515.3 billion, up 0.7 percent for the month (its fourth gain over the past five months). Driving the increase was defense aircraft orders more than doubling (+118.7 percent). Net of all defense goods, new factory orders were flat. Durable goods orders rose 0.7 percent while orders of nondurables gained 0.6 percent. Factory orders over the first nine months of 2018 have totaled $4.495 trillion, up 8.4 percent over the same nine months in 2017. Shipments increased for the 16th time in 17 months, growing 0.9 percent to $509.8 billion. Unfilled orders gained 0.8 percent to $1.187 trillion (its tenth increase in 11 months) while inventories expanded for the 23rd consecutive month with a 0.5 percent bounce.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending October 27, 2018, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 214,000 (-2,000 vs. previous week; -20,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 213,750 (-8.9% vs. the same week a year earlier).
Productivity (2018Q3, Nonfarm Labor Productivity, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): +2.2% vs. 2018Q2, +1.3% vs. 2017Q3.
Conference Board Consumer Sentiment (October 2018, Index (1985=100), seasonally adjusted): 137.9 (vs. September 2018: 135.3, vs. October 2017: 126.2).
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August 2018, 20-City Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. July 2018, +5.5% vs. August 2017).
Construction Spending (September 2018, Value of Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): $1.329 trillion (Unchanged vs. August 2018, +7.2% vs. September 2017).
Bankruptcy Filings (12-month period ending September 30, 2018, Business and Non-Business Filings): 773,375 (-2.2% vs. 12-month period ending September 30, 2017).
Agricultural Prices (September 2018, Prices Received by Farmers): -1.5% vs. August 2018, -4.6% vs. September 2017.

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.

Not Longer Accommodative: September 24 – 28

The Fed made a move and suggests it will do so again before the year is out. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending September 28.

#1The Fed raises its short-term interest rate target while no longer calling its policies “accommodative.” The policy statement released following this past week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that economic activity was “rising at a strong rate” and that the job market had “continued to strengthen.” The word “strong” also was used to describe job gains and growth in both household spending and business fixed investment. Further, the Fed sees core inflation being near its two-percent target. As a result, the FOMC voted without dissent to raise the fed funds target rate by a quarter point to a range between 2.00 and 2.25 percent. Unlike in recent years, the statement did not characterize its fed funds target rate as being “accommodative,” suggesting a shift in the thinking of the committee. Released in conjunction with the policy statement, the median forecast among FOMC members has one more quarter-point rate hike this year, three hikes in 2018, and one in 2019.

#2Personal spending mellowed a bit in August. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent, breaking a four-month streak of 0.3 percent increases for the Bureau of Economic Analysis measure. Real PCE has increased 2.8 percent over the past year. Real spending on services grew 0.2 percent during the month while that of goods increased 0.3 percent. Looking closer at the latter, spending on durable goods gained 0.2 percent while that for nondurables rose 0.4 percent. Matching their July gains were nominal personal income (+0.3 percent), nominal disposable income (+0.3 percent), and real disposable income (+0.2 percent). The latter has grown 2.9 percent over the past 12 months. The savings rate held firm at +6.6 percent. The PCE deflator—a measure of inflation—has risen 2.2 percent over the past year while the core measure (net of both energy and food) has a 12-month comparable of +2.0 percent.

#3The third estimate of Q2 GDP matches that of the second estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, matching the previous estimate reported in late August and up a smidge from the initial 4.1 percent annualized gain published in late July. Contributors to GDP growth during the quarter were (in decreasing order): personal consumption, net exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and government expenditures. Negative contributors to Q2 GDP growth were private inventory accumulation and residential fixed investment (housing). Downwardly revised were the estimate of corporate profits, with the estimate now indicating a 3.0 percent increase during Q2.

#4Consumer sentiment rose in September. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index grew by 3.7 points during the month to a seasonally adjusted 138.4 (1985=100), its best reading since September 2000. The current conditions index grew by a small 3/10ths of a point to 173.1—it was the expectations index that had a big increase, adding a full six points to 115.3. 41.1 percent of survey respondents described current business conditions as “good” while only 9.1 percent see them as “poor.” Similarly, 45.7 percent of Americans see jobs as being “plentiful” while 13.2 percent describe jobs as “hard to get.” The press release said that current confidence levels “should continue to support healthy consumer spending.”

The Index of Consumers Sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at a seasonally adjusted reading of 100.1 (1966Q1 = 100). While this was off 7/10ths of a point from the preliminary September reading a few weeks ago, it represented increases from August 2018 and September 2017 of 3.9 points and 5.0 points, respectively. The current conditions grew by 4.9 points during the month to 115.2 (September 2017: 111.7) while the expectations index added 3.4 points to 90.5 (September 2017: 84.4). The press release noted that most of the improved sentiment was reported by lower income survey respondents—the headline index for households in the bottom third of incomes hit its highest reading in nearly 18 years.

#5Rising aircraft sales fueled durable goods orders in August, but business investment lagged. The Census Bureau estimates new orders for durable goods jumped 4.5 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted $259.6 billion, the second increase in three months. Transportation goods orders surged 13.0 percent, supported by large gains for orders of both civilian (+69.1 percent) and defense aircraft (+17.0 percent). New orders for motor vehicles dropped 1.0 percent. Net of transportation goods, new orders for durable goods managed a mere 0.1 percent gain. Rising during the month were orders for primary metals (+0.9 percent), electrical equipment/appliances (+0.6 percent), and machinery (+0.1 percent). New orders for civilian capital orders net of aircraft (a proxy for business investment) dropped 0.5 percent.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending September 22, 2018, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 214,000 (+12,000 vs. previous week; -44,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 206,250 (-23.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).
New Home Sales (August 2018, New Home Sales, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 629,000 (+3.5% vs. July 2018, +12.7% vs. August 2017).
Pending Home Sales (August 2018, Index (2001=100), seasonally adjusted): 104.2 (-1.8% vs. July 2018, -2.3% vs. August 2017).
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August 2018, Index (0.00 = U.S. economic growth at historical average): +0.18 (vs. July 2018: +0.18, vs. August 2017: -0.08). 3-month moving average: +0.24 (vs. July 2018: +0.02, vs. August 2017: -0.05).
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July 2018, 20-City Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. June 2018, +5.9% vs. July 2017.
FHFA House Price Index (July 2018, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.2% vs. June 2018, +6.4% vs. July 2017.
Agricultural Prices (August 2018, Prices Received by Farmers): -2.2% vs. July 2018, -4.9% vs. August 2018).

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.

Consumers Spend, Prices Hit a Target: August 27 – 31

Consumers focused their spending on nondurable goods and services during July. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending August 31.  

#1Consumers continued spending in July while inflation hits the Fed’s target. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent rate during the month. This was down from the 0.3 percent gains reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the three prior months. Spending on goods and services each grew by 0.2 percent during July, with the latter split by a 0.6 percent bump in nondurable goods spending and a 0.5 percent drop in durable goods spending. Nominal (non-price adjusted) PCE grew 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month. Nominal personal and disposable income gained 0.3 percent, with real disposable income rising 0.2 percent. The savings rate slipped by 1/10th of a percentage point to +6.7 percent. Over the past year, real disposable income has increased 2.9 percent while real PCE has expanded 2.8 percent. The same report includes data on inflation—the PCE deflator growing 0.1 percent during July with the core PCE deflator (removing energy and food) gained 0.2 percent. Over the past year, the two price measures have grown by 2.3 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, with the latter matching the Federal Reserve’s two-percent inflation target.Consumer Spending April - July 2018 083118

#2GDP expanded a smidge faster than previously believed during Q2. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the months of April, May, and June has the U.S. economy expanding 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This was up from the 4.1 percent gain reported a month earlier and was the best quarter for GDP growth since the third quarter of 2014. The small upward revision was the result of higher than previously believed levels of business investment and private inventory accumulation partially offset by lower than the previously thought level of consumer spending. The sectors of the economy making positive contributions to GDP growth were (in declining order of contribution) were: personal spending (+255-basis points), fixed nonresidential investment (+107-basis points), exports (+110-basis points), government expenditures (+41-basis points), and imports (+7-basis points). Negative contributions came from private inventory accumulation (-97-basis points) and fixed residential investment (-6-basis points).

#3Economic growth “moderated” in July. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) lost 35-basis points to +0.13 (June 2017: -0.18). Since the CFNAI is a weighted averaged 85 economic measure indexed such that a reading of 0.00 is indicative of the U.S. economy growing at its historical rate, July reading suggests the economy continued to expand during the month but at a slower pace than it had in June. Thirty-four of the 85 indicators improved during the month while 51 had weakened. The components related to production made a total contribution to CFNAI of +0.05 (versus a +0.45 contribution in June). Also making positive contributions were measures related to employment (+0.12 versus a +0.03 contribution in June) and sales/orders/inventories (+0.03 versus a +0.06 contribution in June). The measures linked to personal consumption/housing had a negative contribution of -0.07 (versus -0.06 in June). The CFNAI’s three-month moving average remained positive at +0.05 despite losing 15-basis points from June (June 2017: -0.07).

#4One measure of consumer sentiment surged to an 18-year high while another pulled back. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped 5.5 points in August to a seasonally adjusted 133.4 (1985=100). The index has not been this high since October 2000. Measures tracking both current and expected business conditions improved—the current conditions index increased from 166.1 to 172.2 while the expectations index added 5.4 points to 107.6. 40.3 percent of survey respondents described current business conditions as “good” while only 9.3 percent see them as “bad.” Similarly, 42.7 percent of respondents saw the availability of jobs as “plentiful” with only 12.7 percent described jobs as being “hard to get.” The press release states that the strong sentiment among consumers “should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term.

Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan lost 1.7 points during August to a seasonally adjusted 96.2 (1966Q1=100), its worst reading since January. While down 6/10ths of a point from a year earlier, this was a 9/10ths of a point improvement from the preliminary August reading reported several weeks ago. The measure tracking current business conditions shed 4.1 points to its lowest points since November 2016 at 110.3 (August 2017=110.9) while the expectations index slipped by only 2/10ths of a point to 87.1 (August 2017=87.7).

#5Contract signings to purchase a home slipped in July. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index lost 8/10ths of a point to a seasonally adjusted reading of 106.2 (2001=100), leaving the measure 2.3 percent below its July 2017 reading. The index, which tracks contracts signed to purchase a previously owned home but have not yet closed, improved during the month in the Northeast (+1.0 percent) and Midwest (+0.3 percent), but lost ground in the South (-1.7 percent) and West (-0.9 percent). The index has negative 12-month comparables in all four Census regions: West (-5.8 percent), Northeast (-2.3 percent), Midwest (-1.5 percent), and South (-0.9 percent). NAR’s press release continued to express concern about “inadequate supply” leading to many homebuyers being “unable to afford” homes in some markets.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending August 25, 2018, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 213,000 (+3,000 vs. previous week; -25,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 212,250 (-10.9% vs. the same week a year earlier).
Agricultural Prices (July 2018, Prices Received by Farmers): -3.8% vs. June 2018, -4.3% vs. July 2017).
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June 2018, 20-City Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. May 2018, +6.3% vs. July 2017). 

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.