Nearly three-quarters of a million Americans left the labor force in June. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending July 3.
Job growth slowed in June, with gains from previous months revised downward. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by a seasonally adjusted 57,000 during the month, down from the 148,000 and 129,000 gains in April and May, respectively. Those months’ increases represented a combined downward revision of 74,000 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private sector payrolls grew by 49,000, including a 46,600 gain in health care/social assistance. Leisure/hospitality payrolls contracted by 61,000. Average weekly earnings of $1,291.05 were up 3.8 percent from a year earlier.
A separate household survey finds the unemployment rate slipping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2 percent. The civilian labor force contracted by 720,000 (!), and the labor force participation rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.5 percent (its lowest rate since the pandemic and the lowest outside the pandemic since 1976). The 25-to-54 labor force participation rate plummeted 0.6 percentage points to 83.3 percent. The median duration of unemployment fell 0.6 weeks to 11.0 weeks, while the number of part-time workers “for economic reasons” declined by 124,000 to 4.681 million. The broadest measure of labor underutilization (the U-6 series) fell 0.2 percentage points to 7.9 percent.
The pace of hiring and the number of unfilled jobs held relatively steady in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there were a seasonally adjusted 7.594 million open jobs at the end of the month. This was up 9,000 from April and 3.9 percent from a year earlier. Private-sector employers were seeking to fill 6.794 million jobs, including at least a million open positions in professional/business services, health care/social assistance, and trade/transportation/utilities. Employers hired 5.215 million workers during the month, down 45,000 from the previous month and 3.0 percent from a year earlier. Private-sector employers hired 4.811 million workers, including just over a million in trade/transportation/utilities. 5.101 million people separated from their jobs in May, down 37,000 from April and 3.5 percent from a year earlier. This included 3.065 million people who quit their jobs (+22,000 versus April 2026, -6.8 percent versus May 2025), and 1.708 million layoffs (+41,000 versus April 2026, +2.2 percent versus May 2025).
Manufacturing activity expanded in June. The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.7 points to 53.3. Despite the decline, the Institute for Supply Management index has remained above 50.0 (indicating growth in the manufacturing sector) for six consecutive months. While the new orders (56.0) and production (52.2) indices declined, those for employment (49.7) and inventories (51.4) improved. Fourteen manufacturing industries expanded in June, led by printing, electrical equipment/appliances, and textile mills. The three contracting manufacturing sectors were paper products, furniture, and wood products.
Factory orders grew (excluding civilian aircraft). New orders for manufactured goods fell 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted $657.4 billion. The Census Bureau reports that year-to-date factory orders of $3.159 trillion were up 5.1 percent from 2025. After removing the 14.0 percent drop in durable goods orders (civilian aircraft: -51.8 percent), orders rose 1.9 percent during the month, with year-to-date orders 5.5 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. Shipments jumped 1.9 percent to $653.2 billion, with year-to-date shipments of $3.121 trillion 5.8 percent ahead of their year-to-date pace. Unfilled orders increased for the 22nd time in 23 months, adding 0.6 percent to $1.580 trillion. Inventories expanded for the eighth consecutive month, swelling 0.2 percent to $962.0 billion.
Conference confidence edged up in June. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 points to 91.2 (1985=100). The index was down 4.0 points from a year earlier and has not topped the century mark since January 2025. The current conditions index fell 3.0 points to 116.4, while the expectations index rose 3.0 points to 74.4. 20.0 percent of consumers describe business conditions as “good,” compared with 16.5 percent who say they are “bad.” Similarly, 24.9 percent of Americans say jobs were ‘plentiful,” just barely above the 22.5 percent who find them “hard to get.” The press release links the recent decline in oil prices to improving sentiment.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending June 27, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 215,000 (-1,000 vs. the previous week, -16,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 222,000 (-7.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Vehicle Sales (June 2026, Auto and Light Truck Sales, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 16.523 million (+2.8% vs. May 2026; +4.4% vs. June 2025.
- Construction Spending (May 2026, Value of Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): $2.210 trillion (+0.1% vs. April 2026; -1.5% vs. May 2025).
- FHFA House Price Index (April 2026, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): -0.1% vs. March 2026; +2.0% vs. April 2025.
- S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (April 2026, National Index, seasonally adjusted): -0.2% vs. March 2026; +0.9% vs. April 2025.
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 