Flowers Are Not The Only Thing Blooming This Spring: What We Learned During the Week of May 11 – 15

Prices rose again in April. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 15. 

Consumer inflation surged again in April. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, following March’s 0.9 percent increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI up 3.8 percent over the past year (its highest reading in three years). Energy CPI rose 3.8 percent (gasoline: +5.4 percent with seasonal adjustments and +11.1 percent without the adjustments). Food CPI grew 0.5 percent. Excluding energy and food, core CPI was up 0.4 percent for the month and 2.8 percent year-over-year (its highest since January 2025). Prices rose for apparel (+0.6 percent), shelter (+0.6 percent), and transportation services (+0.3 percent). Prices declined for medical care commodities (-0.4 percent) and new vehicles (-0.2 percent). 

Inflation at the wholesale level increased further. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, double the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure’s March gain and the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The core wholesale price measure (net of food, energy, and trade services) jumped 0.6 percent (three times the size of its March advance). Goods PPI was up 2.0 percent, with gains in energy (+7.8 percent), foods (0.2 percent), and core goods. Services PPI rose 1.2 percent (trade services PPI: +2.7 percent). Headline PPI has risen 6.0 percent over the past year, with core PPI up a still sizable 4.4 percent.

Retail sales remained strong in April. Retail and food services sales rose 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted $757.1 billion, per the Census Bureau. Higher prices at the pump (this data series does not control for price variations) boosted gas station sales by 2.8 percent. Removing that and the 0.4 percent drop at auto/parts dealers leaves core retail sales up 0.5 percent. Over the last three months, retail sales were up 4.4 percent compared with the same period in 2025, with the comparable core sales measure up 4.7 percent. Sales improved during the month at retailers focused on electronics/appliances (+1.4 percent), sporting goods/hobbies (+1.4 percent), groceries (+0.7 percent), and building materials (+0.1 percent). Restaurants/bars reported a 0.6 percent sales gain. Sales slumped at furniture stores (-2.0 percent) and apparel retailers (-1.5 percent).

Manufacturing output rose in April. The Federal Reserve reports that manufacturing output jumped 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, following March’s 0.1 percent gain. Durable goods production rose 1.2 percent (motor vehicles/parts: +3.7 percent), while nondurable goods production slipped 0.1 percent. Overall industrial production advanced 0.7 percent (March: -0.3 percent) as mining output declined 0.1 percent and utilities output surged 1.9 percent. Over the past year, manufacturing and overall industrial production have increased 1.3 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

Home sales remained stuck in neutral in April. The National Association of Realtors eked out a 0.2 percent increase to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.020 million units. This matched its year-ago sales pace. Sales improved in the Midwest (-2.2 percent) and the South (+0.5 percent) but fell 2.6 percent in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast. Only the South posted a year-over-year sales increase. Inventories of unsold homes swelled 5.8 percent to 1.470 million units (equal to a 4.4-month supply). The median sales price of $417,700 was up 0.9 percent from a year earlier.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending May 9, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 211,000 (+12,000 vs. the previous week, -15,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 203,750 (-11.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• Import Prices (April 2026, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +1.9% vs. March 2026; +4.2% vs. April 2025. Nonfuel Imports: +0.8% vs. March 2026; +2.9% vs. April 2025.
• Export Prices (April 2026, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +3.3% vs. March 2026; +8.8% vs. April 2025. Non-agricultural Exports: +3.4% vs. March 2026; +9.3% vs. April 2025.
• Small Business Optimism (April 2026, Index (1986=100), seasonally adjusted): 95.9 (March 2026: 95.8; April 2025: 95.8).
• Business Inventories (March 2026, Manufacturers and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.710 trillion (+0.9% vs. February 2026; +2.0% vs. March 2025).
• Monthly Treasury Statement (April 2026, FY2026 Year-to-Date Federal Government Budget Deficit): -$953.6 billion (-9.1% vs. comparable year-to-date FY2025).

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