Gas prices pumped up retail sales, but the economy sputtered in March. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 24.
Retail sales surged in March, partly due to higher gas prices. Retail and food services sales rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted $752.1 billion (+4.0 percent versus March 2025). Gas station sales swelled 15.5 percent due to the Iran conflict-driven jump in gas prices. (The Census Bureau does not adjust this data series for inflation.) After removing that and the 0.6 percent gain in motor vehicle/parts dealers’ sales, core retail sales were still up 0.6 percent for the month and 4.4 percent from a year earlier. Sales rose across almost every major sector, including retailers focused on furniture (+2.2 percent), electronics/appliances (+0.9 percent), groceries (+0.9 percent), building materials (+0.7 percent), and health/personal care (+0.5 percent).
Economic growth slowed in March. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell 23 basis points to -0.20. A CFNAI between -0.70 and zero indicates that the U.S. economy grew at a pace slower than its historical rate. Thirty-four of 85 index components made a positive contribution to the CFNAI, while 51 made a negative contribution. Index components tied to production fell sharply (down 33 basis points to -0.20), with smaller declines for those centered on sales/orders/inventories (down six basis points to -0.01) and personal consumption/housing (down one basis point to -0.01). Employment index components improved by 17 basis points to +0.02. The CFNAI three-month moving average fell six basis points to -0.03.
Consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in April. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment declined 3.5 points to a seasonally adjusted 49.8 (1966Q1=100). The index was down 4.6 percent and has fallen 6.8 points since the start of the military action in Iran. The current conditions index decreased 3.3 points to 52.5 (-12.2 percent versus April 2025), while the expectations measure pulled back 3.6 points to 48.1 (+1.7 percent versus April 2025). The press release notes that sentiment deteriorated “across political party, income, age, and education.” One-year anticipated inflation was at an elevated +4.7 percent.
Home purchase contract signings edged up in March. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted 73.7 (2001=100). The PHSI tracks housing contract activity. The index rose in the Northeast (+4.4 percent) and South (+3.9 percent), but fell in the West (-2.6 percent) and Midwest (-1.3 percent). Despite March’s gain, the PHSI was down 1.1 percent from a year earlier. The press release noted that the growth in contract signings was “pointing to pent-up housing demand.”
Manufacturing and trade sales and inventories grew in February. Distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted $2.015 trillion. The Census Bureau measure has grown 5.5 percent over the past year. Sales rose among merchant wholesalers (+2.7 percent), manufacturers (+1.4 percent), and retailers (+0.7 percent) during the month. Inventories expanded 0.4 percent in February to $2.687 trillion (+1.3 percent versus February 2025). Merchant wholesalers’ inventories swelled 0.8 percent, with more modest increases among retailers (+0.2 percent) and manufacturers (+0.1 percent). The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio fell two basis points to 1.33, with declines centered among manufacturers and merchant wholesalers.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending April 18, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 214,000 (+6,000 vs. the previous week, -10,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 210,750 (-4.6% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- State Employment (February 2026, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Decreased in 2 states, increased in 1 state, and held steady in 47 states and the District of Columbia vs. January 2026. Decreased in 2 states and the District of Columbia, increased in 2 states, and unchanged 46 states vs. February 2025.
- Bankruptcy Filings (12-month Period Ending March 31, 2026): 591,950 (+11.9% vs. 12-month period ending March 31, 2025).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 