Industrial production slowed while producer prices rose in March. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 17.
Manufacturing production slipped in March. The Federal Reserve estimates that manufacturing output slowed by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, marking its first monthly decline since last December. Production of durable goods fell 0.2 percent (motor vehicles/parts: -3.7 percent), while nondurables production decreased 0.1 percent. Overall industrial production declined 0.5 percent (its first drop since last November), with sizable drops in mining (-1.2 percent) and utilities (-2.3 percent). Over the past year, manufacturing output has grown a minuscule 0.5 percent, while overall industrial production has increased a modest 0.7 percent.
Wholesale prices jumped in March. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent, marking the fifth consecutive month the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure was…well…inflated. The core PPI (net of energy, food, and trade services) posted a more modest 0.2 percent increase (its smallest advance since last December). Goods PPI rose 1.6 percent, driven by a war-driven 8.5 percent surge in the energy PPI (gasoline: +15.7 percent). Wholesale food prices fell 0.3 percent (fresh and dry vegetables: -10.7 percent). Core goods PPI: +0.2 percent. PPI for services was unchanged. Over the past year, PPI has risen 4.0 percent, with core PPI up 3.6 percent.
Home sales slumped in March. The National Association of Realtors reports that existing home sales fell 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 3.980 million units. Sales declined in all four Census regions month-over-month (with the largest declines in the Northeast and Midwest) and in two regions year-over-year (Northeast and Midwest). The number of unsold homes rose 3.0 percent to 1.360 million units (-2.3 percent versus March 2025), equivalent to a 4.1-month supply. The median sales price of $408,800 was up just 1.4 percent from a year earlier. The press release said that “[l]ower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”
Homebuilders’ sentiment fell in April. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped three points to a seasonally adjusted 34. HMI values below 50 indicate that most homebuilders are pessimistic about the housing market. The HMI, which declined across all four Census regions, reached its lowest level since last September and was down six points from a year earlier. Measures of current single-family home sales (37), expected sales over the next six months (42), and prospective buyer traffic (22) also declined. Signs of market cooling include 36 percent of builders reducing prices in April and 60 percent offering sales incentives to buyers.
Small business owner optimism sagged in March. The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points to a seasonally adjusted 95.8 (1986=100). The index slumped to an 11-month low, falling below its 52-year average of 98.0. Eight of ten index components deteriorated during the month, including sharp declines in earnings trends, expectations for the economy to improve, and whether it is a good time to expand. The press release noted that “the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending April 11, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 207,000 (-11,000 vs. the previous week, -10,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 209,750 (-5.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Import Prices (March 2026, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.8% vs. February 2026; +2.1% vs. March 2025. Nonfuel Imports: +0.6% vs. February 2026; +2.8% vs. March 2025.
- Export Prices (March 2026, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +1.6% vs. February 2026; +5.6% vs. March 2025. Non-Agricultural Exports: +1.7% vs. February 2026; +5.8% vs. March 2025.
- Treasury International Capital Flows (February 2026, Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. securities, not seasonally adjusted): +$101.1 billion (January 2026: +$50.4 billion; February 2025: +$141.5 billion).
- Beige Book
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 