Labor market activity has strengthened in recent months. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 6.
Employers expanded payrolls in October. Nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 165,000, following gains of 186,000 and 60,000 in August and September. The latter two reflect upward revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics totaling 84,000. Private sector employment grew by 159,000, with the largest increases in professional/business services (+70,000), health care/social assistance (+55,100), durable goods manufacturing (+25,000), and transportation/warehousing (+24,800). Average weekly earnings of $1,307.20 reflected a 3.7 percent increase from a year earlier.
Based on a separate survey of households, the unemployment rate slipped by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.1 percent. The labor force grew by 421,000, pushing the labor force participation rate up by a tenth of a percentage point to 61.9 percent. The 25-54 labor force participation rate held steady at 83.7 percent. The typical unemployed person has been out of work for 11.9 weeks. The number of workers who are part-time for “economic reasons” swelled by 339,000 to 4.840 million, while the broadest measure of labor underutilization (the U-6 series) added 0.3 percentage points to 7.9 percent.
The number of unfilled jobs swelled in September even as hiring picked up. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that there were a seasonally adjusted 7.523 million open jobs at the end of the month, up 333,000 for the month and 4.9 percent from a year earlier. This included 6.644 million private-sector positions, with health care/social assistance, professional/business services, and trade/transportation/utilities seeking to fill at least one million jobs. Hiring increased by 131,000 to an annualized 5.271 million jobs (+3.0 percent versus September 2025). Private-sector employers hired 5.078 million workers, with leisure/hospitality, trade/transportation/utilities, and health care/social assistance leading the way. Also growing was the number of people separating from their jobs, up 144,000 to 5.319 million (+3.1 percent versus September 2025). This included more people quitting their jobs (3.365 million: +312,000 for the month and +12.5 percent from a year earlier) and fewer layoffs (1.641 million: -127,000 for the month and -9.6 percent from a year earlier).
Manufacturing activity accelerated in October. The Manufacturing PMI increased by a full point to 55.5. This marked the 10th straight month that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) measure was above 50.0, indicating an expanding manufacturing sector. Measures for new orders (55.5), production (59.0), and inventories (51.4) improved during the month. The employment index slipped 0.3 points to a still-expansionary 52.4. Twelve manufacturing industries grew in October, led by plastics/rubber products, electrical equipment/appliances, and machinery. Three manufacturing sectors contracted: printing, paper products, and nonmetallic mineral products.
The service sector’s winning streak extends to 28 months. The ISM’s Service PMI pulled back by 0.4 points to 54.5. Even with the decline, the index has remained above the 50.0 expansion/contraction threshold for 28 consecutive months. Measures for business activity/production (53.8), new orders (55.9), and inventories (55.4) declined. The employment index added 1.3 points to 51.4. Fifteen service sector industries expanded, led by transportation/warehousing, wholesale trade, and information. Two industries declined: construction and health care/social assistance. The press release notes that the most common comments for survey participants focused on “[t]arrifs and fuel cost impacts.”
The trade deficit modestly narrowed in September. Exports grew 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted $321.5 billion, and imports increased 1.2 percent to $426.6 billion. The resulting trade deficit of -$105.0 billion was down 1.7 percent from August. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the year-to-date trade deficit at -$662.3 billion, down 12.2 percent from the same period last year. The goods deficit narrowed by $0.7 billion to -$135.9 billion, while the services surplus declined by less than $0.1 billion to +$30.9 billion. The former reflects higher exports of capital goods, food/beverages, and consumer goods, along with increased imports of capital and consumer goods (and a drop in imports of non-monetary goods and crude oil). The U.S. recorded its largest goods deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending October 31, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 189,000 (-6,000 vs. the previous week, -39,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 194,750 (-13.6% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Factory Orders (September 2026, New Orders for Manufactured Goods, seasonally adjusted): $677.2 billion (+1.8% vs. August 2026; +10.8% vs. September 2025).
- Construction Spending (September 2026, Value of Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): $2.186 trillion (-1.9% vs. August 2026; -2.7% vs. September 2025).
- Productivity (2026Q3-preliminary, Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): +3.6% vs. 2026Q2; +2.1% vs. 2025Q3.
- Vehicle Sales (October 2026, Auto and Light Truck Sales, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): -2.5% vs. September 2026; -0.2% vs. October 2025.
- University of Michigan Consumer Surveys (November 2026-preliminary, Index (1966Q1=100, seasonally adjusted): 51.0 (+6.3% vs. October 2026; Unchanged vs. November 2025).
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