Not all FOMC members agreed with the decision to leave the short-term interest rate target unchanged. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 30.
The Fed does not touch its interest rate target. The statement released after this past week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting notes that the U.S. economy was “expanding at a strong pace” with “resilient” domestic spending. Further job creation “has kept pace,” and “productivity growth [has been] strong.” At the same time, the statement also states that “inflation remains elevated.” While the FOMC voted to keep the fed funds target rate at 3.75 – 4.00 percent, two members (Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack) wanted a quarter-point hike in the short-term interest rate target.
Economic growth accelerated in Q3. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.4 percent. This was GDP’s fastest growth rate in a year, outpacing last quarter’s 2.2 percent gain. The largest positive contributions to Q3 economic growth, in descending order, were: personal spending (adding 252 basis points to GDP growth), nonresidential fixed investment (178 basis points, including 72 from computers and peripheral equipment), the change in private inventories (163 basis points), and federal government expenditures (91 basis points). Drags on the economy were net exports (a 332-basis-point negative contribution), residential fixed investment (-12 basis points), and state/local government spending (a negative contribution of a single basis point). The BEA will revise its Q3 GDP estimate twice over the next two months.
Consumer spending froze and inflation heated up in early fall. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, after rising 0.5 percent the prior month. Goods spending fell 0.3 percent (including a 0.8 percent drop in durable goods), while services expenditures advanced 0.2 percent. Without inflation adjustments, nominal PCE grew by half a percentage point, outpacing the 0.2 percent increase in nominal personal income and disposable income. Real disposable income declined 0.3 percent. As a result, the savings rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to +3.8% (its lowest level since October 2022). The same Bureau of Economic Analysis report shows the closely watched inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, rising 0.5 percent for the month and 3.6 percent over the past year. The core PCE Price Index (which removes food and energy) grew 0.3 percent in September and 3.1 percent over the past year. Both were above the Fed’s two-percent inflation target.
Durable goods orders jumped in September. The Census Bureau estimates that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted $345.4 billion. Year-to-date durable goods orders totaled $3.007 trillion, up 8.0 percent from the comparable 2025 months. Transportation goods orders surged 4.0 percent, boosted by civilian (+28.4 percent) and defense (+5.7 percent) aircraft and motor vehicles (+0.3 percent). Nontransportation durable goods orders increased 0.5 percent. Shipments of durable goods grew 0.9 percent to $336.8 billion, with year-to-date shipments ($2.955 trillion) 8.5 percent ahead of its year-ago pace.
A measure of consumer sentiment firmed up in October. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped by 7.5 points to a seasonally adjusted 91.7 (1985=100). The measure remained below its year-ago reading of 95.5. The current conditions index rose 8.6 points to 120.4, while the expectations index added 6.9 points to 72.6. 21.6 percent of consumers view business conditions as “good,” above the 17.8 percent who see them as “poor.” Similarly, 26.7 percent of survey respondents say jobs are “plentiful,” compared with 21.4 percent who say they are “hard to get.” The press release notes that “[c]onsumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months.”
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending October 24, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 194,000 (-1,000 vs. the previous week, -27,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 196,750 (-13.2% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September 2026, Index (0.00=U.S. Economy Expanding At Its Historical Average): +0.07 (August 2026: -0.08; September 2025: -0.31).
- New Home Sales (September 2026, Sales of New Single-Family Houses, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 676,000 (-0.6% vs. August 2026; -5.3% vs. September 2025).
- FHFA House Price Index (August 2026, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.3% vs. July 2026; +2.4% vs. August 2025.
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August 2026, National Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.3% vs. July 2026; +2.1% vs. August 2025.
- Agricultural Prices (September 2026, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): -1.7% vs. August 2026; +0.5% vs. September 2025.
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