Consumers continued spending in early autumn. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 16.
Retail sales rose in September, but much of the gain came from higher gas prices. Retail and food services sales increased 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted $745.0 billion, up 6.3 percent from a year earlier. Sales over the past three months were 5.5 percent ahead of comparable sales in the same period in 2025. Gas stations saw a 6.4 percent jump in sales (largely from higher prices at the pump, as the Census Bureau data series is not adjusted for price changes). Removing that and the 0.2 percent gain at motor vehicle/parts dealers leaves core retail sales up 0.2 percent for the month and 5.0 percent from a year earlier. Sales improved at retailers focused on furniture (+1.3 percent), health/personal care (+0.7 percent), electronics/appliances (+0.6 percent), and groceries (+0.5 percent). Restaurants/bars saw sales rise 1.1 percent during the month. Sales fell at building material stores (-0.6 percent), sporting goods/hobby retailers (-0.5 percent), and general merchandisers (-0.1 percent).
Manufacturing production increased in September. The Federal Reserve reports that manufacturing output grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent after declining 0.1 percent in August. Output of durable goods (+0.1 percent) and nondurable goods (+0.4 percent) both increased. Overall industrial production rose 0.7 percent, its largest gain in five months. Mining output gained 0.2 percent, while utilities output surged 3.5 percent (its third consecutive monthly increase of more than one percent). Manufacturing output rose 1.1 percent over the past year, with overall industrial production up 2.2 percent.
Wholesale prices surged in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a half-point increase in August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports PPI up 6.3 percent over the past year. The core wholesale price measure, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, increased 0.5 percent during the month and has risen 5.0 percent over the past year. PPI for both energy and food surged, with the former including a 20.3 percent jump for gasoline. Core goods PPI increased 0.3 percent. Services PPI grew 0.8 percent, including a 1.4 percent bump for trade services.
Home sales edged up last month. Existing home sales grew 1.5 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 3.99 million units. The National Association of Realtors data series was down 2.2 percent from a year earlier. Sales were up 2.8 percent month over month in the South and West, unchanged in the Midwest, and down 2.1 percent in the Northeast. All four Census regions posted year-over-year sales declines. There were 1.60 million existing homes for sale (+1.9 percent versus August 2026 and +4.6 percent versus September 2025), equivalent to a 4.8-month supply. The median sales price of $417,500 was up 1.3 percent from a year earlier.
The federal government deficit swelled in FY2026. The Department of the Treasury reported that the federal government ran a budget deficit of $1.992 trillion, up 12.2 percent from the prior fiscal year. The U.S. government collected $5.403 trillion in receipts, a 3.2 percent gain from the prior year. This included a 7.1 percent increase in individual income taxes, a 4.5 percent gain in social insurance/retirement receipts, and a 15.6 percent drop in corporate income taxes. Government outlays rose 5.5 percent to $7.396 trillion, with the four largest line items (in descending order) being the Department of Health & Human Services, the Social Security Administration, interest on Treasury debt securities, and military programs within the Department of Defense.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending October 10, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 199,000 (+1,000 vs. the previous week, -23,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 198,500 (-11.7% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Import Prices (September 2026, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +1.1% vs. August 2026; +8.1% vs. September 2025. Nonfuel Imports: +0.7% vs. August 2026; +6.0% vs. September 2025.
- Export Prices (September 2026, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +2.2% vs. August 2026; +11.6% vs. September 2025. Non-agricultural Exports: +2.1% vs. August 2026; +11.8% vs. September 2025.
- Business Inventories (August 2026, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.819 trillion (+0.4% vs. July 2026; +4.8% vs. August 2025).
- Small Business Optimism (September 2026, Index (1986=100), seasonally adjusted): 97.9 (August 2026: 98.7; September 2025: 98.8).
- Beige Book
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