Leading indicators were flat in early fall. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 23.
Forward-looking economic measures were unchanged in September. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) held steady at 99.6 (2016=100). The LEI has risen 0.6 percent over the past six months, reversing a 1.1 percent decline in the prior six-month period. Five of the ten LEI components contributed positively to the index, including the interest rate spread and weekly manufacturing hours. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.3 percent during the month and 0.9 percent over the past six months to 115.3. All four CEI components contributed positively, led by industrial production and personal income. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) added half a percentage point to 121.6 and has grown 1.0 percent over the past six months. The group expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.2 percent this year and 2.0 percent next year.
Consumer sentiment held steady in early October. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 1/10 of a point to 48.1, 10.4 percent below its year-ago level. The current conditions index dropped 4.2 points to 46.7 (-20.3 percent versus October 2025), while the expectations measure rose 2.5 points to 48.8 (-3.0 percent versus October 2025). The press release noted that sentiment improved among both Republicans and Democrats but fell among independents, and that “[p]urchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy.” Consumers expect prices to rise 4.7 percent over the next year.
Housing starts declined in September. The Census Bureau reports that privately owned housing starts fell 5.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.221 million units. Both single-family (-4.6 percent) and multi-family (-7.2 percent) starts declined. Starts were 7.4 percent below their year-ago levels. Looking ahead, issued building permits slipped 0.2 percent to an annualized 1.400 million (-3.0 percent versus September 2025). Housing completions increased 2.0 percent to an annualized 1.192 million homes. Even with the gain, completions were 14.0 percent below their year-ago pace.
Homebuilders grew more pessimistic in October. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index (HMI) fell three points to a seasonally adjusted 29. An HMI below 50—where it has been since the summer of 2024—signals that a majority of builders are not confident in current and near-term housing market conditions. The HMI slumped in three of four Census regions but improved slightly in the Northeast. The index tracking current sales of single-family homes declined by two points to 33, while the expected sales index dropped by five points to 32. The measure tracking traffic of prospective buyers slumped by five points to 18.Â
September payroll growth was concentrated in two states. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls expanded in New Jersey (+14,900) and South Carolina (+12,500) during the month. Employment fell by 13,700 in Wisconsin and “essentially” held steady in the remaining 47 states and the District of Columbia. Over the past 12 months, payrolls increased in seven states (Texas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Utah), declined in the District of Columbia, and “essentially” held steady in the remaining 43 states.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending October 17, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 194,000 (-6,000 vs. the previous week, -37,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 197,750 (-13.2% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Bankruptcy Filings (12-Month Period Ending September 30, 2026, Business and Non-Business Filings): 621,111 (+11.4% vs. 12-month period ending September 30, 2025).
- Pending Home Sales (September 2026, Index (2001=100), seasonally adjusted): 66.0 (-7.3% vs. August 2026; -11.3% vs. September 2025).
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