A Spring Bloom? March 30 – April 3

The labor market bounced back in March. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 3. 

Hiring rebounded in March. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by a seasonally adjusted 178,000, a reversal from February’s 133,000 decline. The private sector added a net 186,000 workers (February 2026: -129,000), but most of the gains came from two sectors: health care/social assistance (89,000) and leisure/hospitality (44,000). Public sector payrolls contracted by 8,000 during the month. The same Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows average weekly earnings rising 3.5 percent over the past year to $1,278.40.

A separate household survey shows the unemployment rate slipping 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 percent. 396,000 people left the labor force, leading to a 0.1 percentage point drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.9 percent. The 25 to 54 labor force participation rate also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 83.8 percent. The median duration of unemployment was 11.5 weeks. Additionally, 4.497 million people were working part-time for economic reasons (e.g., could not find full-time work, slack work conditions). The broadest measure of labor underutilization (the U-6 series) increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 8.0 percent.

There were fewer unfilled jobs as hiring slowed in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there were a seasonally adjusted 6.882 million open jobs, down 358,000 from January and 360,000 from a year earlier. Private-sector employers sought to fill 6.181 million jobs, including at least 1 million in health care/social assistance, professional/business services, and trade/transportation/utilities. Hiring declined by 498,000 to 4.849 million (-7.4 percent versus February 2025). Top hiring industries were leisure/hospitality (896,000), professional/business services (864,000), health care/social assistance (620,000), and retail (608,000). 4.971 million people separated from their jobs (-173,000 versus January 2026 and -5.9 percent versus February 2025). This included 2.974 million people who quit their jobs (-157,000 versus January 2026) and 1.721 million layoffs (+61,000 versus January 2026).

Retail sales grew in February. The Census Bureau reports that retail and food services sales increased by 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted $738.4 billion, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Sales from December to February were 3.1 percent higher than the same months last year. During the month, sales at motor vehicle dealers (+1.2 percent) and gas stations (+0.9 percent) both increased (the latter not reflecting the surge in gas prices since the start of military action in Iran). After accounting for both, core retail sales rose 0.4 percent in March and 4.1 percent year-over-year. In March, sales improved at retailers focusing on health/personal care (+2.3 percent), apparel (+2.0 percent), sporting goods/hobbies (+1.3 percent), electronics/appliances (+0.5 percent), and building materials (+0.4 percent). Restaurants/bars experienced a 0.4 percent bump in sales. Meanwhile, sales at grocery stores and furniture retailers declined by 1.0 percent.

Manufacturing activity increased for a third consecutive month in March. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI added 0.3 points to 52.7. The index has stayed above the expansion/contraction threshold of 50.0 for three straight months. Although measures for new orders (53.5), employment (48.7), and inventories (47.1) all declined, the production index increased to 55.1. Thirteen manufacturing industries expanded during the month, led by printing, primary metals, and transportation equipment. Survey panelists noted “ongoing uncertainty,” including the impacts from the military actions in Iran.

The trade deficit widened in February. Exports increased by 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $314.8 billion, while imports rose 4.3 percent to $372.1 billion. The resulting trade deficit of -$57.3 billion was up 4.9 percent from January. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis report the year-to-date deficit at -$112.03 billion, a 54.9 percent decline from a year earlier (remember that companies accelerated imports a year ago in anticipation of White House-imposed tariffs). During the month, the goods deficit widened by $2.5 billion to -$84.6 billion, and the services surplus decreased by $0.2 billion to +$27.3 billion. The former resulted from sharp increases in exported nonmonetary gold and natural gas, which were outpaced by imports of capital goods, industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles and parts. The U.S. recorded its largest goods deficits with Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, and China.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending March 28, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 202,000 (-9,000 vs. the previous week, -18,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 207,750 (-6.7% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• Vehicle Sales (March 2026, Autos and Light Trucks, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 16.344 million (+3.7% vs. February 2026; -4.6% vs. March 2025).
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (March 2026, Index (1985=100), seasonally adjusted): 91.8 (February 2026: 91.0; March 2025=93.9).
• Business Inventories (January 2026, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.675 trillion (-0.1% vs. December 2025; +1.0% vs. January 2025).
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2026, National Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.2% vs. December 2025; +0.9% vs. January 2025.
• FHFA House Price Index (January 2026, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. December 2025; +1.6% vs. January 2025.
• Agricultural Prices (February 2026, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): +12.2% vs. January 2026; -11.3% vs. February 2025.

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