Inflation concerns weighed on consumer sentiment in November, even as jobless claims remained low. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 10.
Consumer sentiment dropped for a fourth straight month in early November. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment lost 3.4 points to a seasonally adjusted 60.4 (1966Q1=100). The index has declined by 10.1 points over the past four months but remained above its year-ago mark of 56.7. The current conditions index decreased by 4.9 points to 65.7 (November 2022: 58.7), while the expectations index shed 2.4 points to 56.9 (November 2022: 55.5). The press release noted that one-year inflation expectations grew by 2/10ths of a percentage point to +4.4 percent (two months ago, it was at +3.2 percent). Longer-term inflation expectations hit a 12-year high of +3.2 percent.
Initial jobless claims remained low in early November. The Department of Labor indicates that there were a seasonally adjusted 217,000 first-time claims made for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending November 4, 2023. This was down 3,000 from the previous week and up 10,000 from a year earlier. The four-week moving average of first-time claims was 212,500, up 4.8 percent from a year earlier. There were 1.600 million continued jobless insurance benefits claims filed during the week ending October 21, up 26.6 percent from a year earlier.
Trade activity and the trade deficit grew in September. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate exports grew 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $261.1 billion and imports jumped 2.7 percent to $322.7 billion. The resulting trade deficit of -$61.5 billion represented a 4.9 percent increase from August. The trade deficit over the first nine months of 2023 of -$590.2 billion was down 20.0 percent from the comparable 2022 months. The goods deficit swelled by $1.7 billion in September to -$86.3 billion, while the services surplus narrowed by $1.2 billion to +$24.8 billion. Boosting the former were increased imports of cell phones, passenger cars, and capital goods. The U.S. had its largest goods deficits with China, the European Union, Mexico, and Vietnam.
Wholesalers reported sales growth and modest inventory expansion in September. The Census Bureau reports merchant wholesaler sales rose 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $678.1 billion (+0.9 percent versus September 2022). Wholesale durables sales gained 0.7 percent (automotive: +2.9 percent), while wholesale nondurables were up 3.4 percent (farm products: +10.0 percent). Wholesale inventories expanded 0.2 percent to $901.8 billion. Even with the gain, inventories were 1.2 percent lighter than a year ago. Durable inventories grew 0.2 percent, while nondurables earned a 0.1 percent gain. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio of 1.33 was down three basis points from both August 2023 and September 2022.
Consumer credit balances grew in September after falling in August. Outstanding non-real estate-backed loan balances expanded by $9.1 billion to a seasonally adjusted $4.976 trillion. The Federal Reserve measure had declined by $15.8 billion in August but has risen 3.5 percent over the past year. The latter reflects a slowdown relative to recent years. Revolving credit balances (e.g., credit cards) grew by $3.1 billion to $1.288 trillion and have swelled 9.9 percent over the past 12 months. Nonrevolving credit balances (including auto and college loans) increased $5.9 billion to $3.689 trillion and have grown a modest 1.5 percent over the past year.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Mortgage Delinquencies (2023Q3, Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rate on 1 to 4 Unit Residential Properties, seasonally adjusted): 3.62% (+25 basis points vs. 2023Q2; +17 basis points vs. 2022Q3).
- Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 