A Record Number of Job Openings: October 15 – 19

Employers continued to have difficulty filling job openings in August. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 19.

#1The number of job openings jumped to another record high in August. Nonfarm employers had a seasonally adjusted 7.136 million job openings on the final day of August, up 59,000 for the month and 18.1 percent from a year earlier. (By comparison, there were 6.234 million people unemployed during the same month.) Among the industries that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported having the biggest year-to-year percentage gains in job openings were construction (+38.6 percent), financial activities (+28.7 percent), wholesale trade (+19.6 percent), accommodation/food services (+19.4 percent), retail (+18.0 percent), and manufacturing (+17.3 percent). Employers continued to struggle in filling these jobs as 5.784 million people were hired during August. While lagging the number of job openings, the number of people hired was up 71,000 for the month and 5.0 percent from August 2017. Industries with the greatest year-to-year percentage increases in hiring were retail (+18.6 percent), wholesale trade (+10.9 percent), and accommodation/food services (+6.2 percent). 5.706 million people left their jobs during August, up 110,000 for the month and 6.8 percent from a year earlier. 3.577 million workers voluntarily departed their jobs during the month, 12.7 percent ahead of a year-ago and indicative of workers confident about their job marketplace. Layoffs affected 1.622 million people, down 10.1 percent from the count of 12 months earlier.JOLTS August 18 101918

#2Manufacturing output grew modestly in September. The Federal Reserve reports that manufacturing output grew 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the month, following matching 0.3 percent gains in both July and August. Manufacturing output has increased 3.5 percent over the past 12 months. Durable goods manufacturing jumped 0.6 percent (led by motor vehicles, wood products, primary metals, and aerospace). Nondurable goods output slipped 0.1 percent, pulled down by textiles and apparel. Overall industrial production gained 0.3 percent in September and has risen 5.1 percent over the past year. Mining output jumped 0.5 percent for the month and 13.4 percent since September 2017, boosted by continued strength in both oil and gas extraction. Output at utilities was unchanged during September but has a 12-month comparable of +5.4 percent over the past year.

#3September was a weak month for retail sales. The Census Bureau estimates U.S. retail and food services sales inched up 0.1 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted $509.0 billion. Even with the modest increase during September, sales have grown 4.7 percent over the past year. Sales at auto dealers/parts stores jumped 0.8 percent while gas station sales slowed 0.8 percent. Net of both, core retail sales were unchanged during September but have expanded 5.0 percent over the past 12 months. Sales improved during the month at retailers focused on furniture (+1.1 percent), electronics/appliances (+0.9 percent), sporting goods/hobbies (+0.7 percent), apparel (+0.5 percent), and building materials (+0.1 percent). Sales slumped, however, at restaurants/bars (-1.8 percent), department stores (-0.8 percent), and grocery stores (-0.1 percent).

#4Existing home sales sputtered again in September. The National Association of Realtors reports that sales of previously owned homes fell 3.4 percent during the month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.15 million homes. This was not only a 4.1 percent drop from the same month a year earlier, it also was the measure’s seventh consecutive decline and the slowest pace of existing home sales in nearly three years. Sales failed to increase in all four Census regions, although transaction volume managed to hold even with August levels in the Midwest. All four Census regions had negative 12-month comparables: West (-12.2 percent), Northeast (-5.6 percent), Midwest (-1.5 percent), and the South (0.5 percent). A part of the problem remained a lack of homes on the market—there were 1.88 million homes available for sale at the end of September, down 1.6 percent from August but up 1.1 percent from a year earlier. This was the equivalent to a paltry 4.4 month supply of homes. The resulting median sales price has risen 4.2 percent over the past year to $258,100. NAR’s press release also ties recent sales weakness to “a decade’s high mortgage rates” that it says were “preventing consumers from making quick decisions on home purchases.”

#5The U.S. budget deficit surged 17.0 percent during the just-completed fiscal year. The U.S. Treasury Department reports that the federal government collected $3.329 trillion in receipts during the just completed FY2018, up 0.4 percent from FY2018. Outlays, however, jumped 3.2 percent during the same 12 months to $4.108 trillion. The resulting budget deficit of -$778.996 billion represented a 17.0 percent jump from FY2017. A closer look at receipts finds individual tax collections surged 6.1 percent during FY2018 while corporate tax receipts plummeted 31.1 percent. The U.S. government had accumulated a total debt of $21.460 trillion by September 30, 2018.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
Jobless Claims (week ending October 13, 2018, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 210,000 (-5,000 vs. previous week; -20,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 211,750 (-13.9% vs. the same week a year earlier).
Housing Market Index (October 2018, Index (>50= Greater Percentage of Homebuilders Viewing Housing Market as “Good,” seasonally adjusted): 68 (vs. September 2018: 67, vs. October 2017: 68).
Housing Starts (September 2018, Starts, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 1.201 million units (-5.3% vs. August 2018, +3.7% vs. September 2017).
State Employment (September 2018, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Payrolls declined significantly vs. July 2018 in 3 states and were essentially unchanged in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Payrolls grew significantly vs. August 2017 in 37 states.
Treasury International Capital Flows (August 2018, Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities, not seasonally adjusted): +$77.1 billion (vs. July 2018: +$32.4 billion, vs. August 2017: +$40.6 billion).
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The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.

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