Moderate growth was the theme in August. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending September 25.
1. The U.S. economy posted near “average” growth in August. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) lost 12 basis points to -0.04. A zero reading indicates the economy expanded at its historical average, while a reading between -0.70 and zero means the U.S. expanded but more slowly than average. Thirty-nine of the CFNAI’s 85 components contributed positively to the index, while 46 contributed negatively. Production-related components pulled the index down (-0.07). Those related to employment and personal consumption/housing each added a basis point, and those for sales/orders/inventories had a neutral impact. The three-month moving average edged up two basis points to +0.01.
2. Durable goods orders held steady in August. The Census Bureau reports that new orders for manufactured durable goods were unchanged after declines in the previous two months. Thus far in 2026, new durable goods orders totaled $2.639 trillion, up 7.7 percent from 2025. Transportation goods orders declined 0.6 percent, dragged down by declines in automobiles and civilian aircraft. Non-transportation durable goods orders increased 0.3 percent, with year-to-date orders 9.6 percent above the comparable 2025 months. Durable goods shipments slipped 0.2 percent to $333.8 billion, with year-to-date shipments of $2.599 trillion up 8.4 percent from a year earlier.
3. New home sales grew in August. Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 684,000 units. The Census Bureau measure was 2.0 percent below year-ago levels. Sales improved in the Midwest and South but fell in the Northeast and West. Only the South posted a year-over-year sales gain. There were 483,000 new homes on the market, matching July’s count and down 2.0 percent from a year earlier. This is equivalent to an 8.5-month inventory of homes. The median sales price of $393,700 was 5.8 percent below that of August 2025.
4. Consumers grew even more pessimistic in September. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 3.6 points to a seasonally adjusted 48.1 (1966Q1=100). The index was 12.7 percent below year-ago levels. The current conditions index fell a full point to 50.9 (-15.7 percent versus September 2025), while the expectations measure plummeted 5.2 points to 51.5 (-10.4 percent versus September 2025). The press release noted that “renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes” had hit the business outlook among consumers. Survey respondents expect prices to rise 4.6 percent over the next year.
5. Jobless claims remained modest in mid-September. The Department of Labor reports that there were a seasonally adjusted 197,000 first-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending September 19. This was off by 1,000 from the prior week and 10.0 percent from a year earlier. The four-week moving average of first claims was 14.6 percent below year-ago levels at 202,250. The seasonally adjusted count of insured unemployed was 1.719 million during the week ending September 12, down 10.3 percent from the same week a year ago. 1,588,612 people (not seasonally adjusted) were receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending September 5, 11.3 percent of its year-ago count.
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