Hiring slowed in September. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 2.
1. Payroll growth sputtered in September. Nonfarm payrolls were up a seasonally adjusted 29,000, following August’s 133,000 gain and July’s 10,000 decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the previous two months’ estimates down by a combined 60,000. Private-sector payrolls grew by 46,000 (versus 89,000 in August), including a 23,000 expansion in health care/social assistance. Government payrolls fell by 17,000. Average weekly earnings have risen 3.6 percent over the past year to $1,300.66.
A separate household survey shows the unemployment rate rising 0.3 percentage points to 4.4 percent. 485,000 people entered the labor force during the month, pushing the labor force participation rate up 0.2 percentage points to 61.8 percent. The 25-to-54 labor force participation rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 83.7 percent. The median duration of unemployment edged up by 1/10th of a week to 11.5 weeks, while the number of part-time workers for “economic reasons” increased by 111,000 to 4.501 million. The broadest measure of labor underutilization declined by 1/10th of a percentage point to 7.6 percent.
2. Consumer spending rose, and inflation picked up in August. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) jumped 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a modest 0.1 percent increase in July. Goods spending surged 1.3 percent, boosted by healthy gains in durable (+1.9 percent) and nondurable (+1.0 percent) goods. Expenditures on services increased 0.2 percent. Without inflation adjustments, nominal PCE rose 0.9 percent, partially funded by increases in nominal personal income (+0.2 percent) and nominal disposable income (+0.3 percent). Real disposable income was unchanged. The savings rate fell half a percentage point to +4.1 percent. Real PCE rose 2.6 percent over the past year, while real disposable income grew 1.3 percent. The same Bureau of Economic Analysis report shows the PCE Price Index jumping 0.3 percent in August, up from a 0.1 percent gain the prior month. The core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy) grew 0.2 percent, up from July’s 0.1 percent advance. The 12-month comparables for inflation measures were +3.4 percent and +3.0 percent, respectively.
3. The U.S. economy expanded faster in Q2 than previously believed. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate of 2026 Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has the U.S. economy expanding 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This was up 0.7 percent from the prior estimate, reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government expenditures. Positively contributing to Q2 GDP growth were, in descending order, consumer expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment (business investment), state/local government spending, and residential fixed investment (housing). Conversely, net exports, the change in private inventories, and federal government spending dragged down economic growth. Corporate profits were at an annualized $4.710 trillion, up 8.9 percent from Q1 and 20.8 percent from a year earlier.
4. Factory orders modestly increased in August. The Census Bureau reports that new orders for manufactured goods edged up 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $663.5 billion. Year-to-date, factory orders have totaled $5.178 trillion, 6.8 percent ahead of the 2025 comparable. Durable orders slowed 0.1 percent, while nondurable orders grew 0.3 percent. Shipments held steady at $658.6 billion, with year-to-date shipments of $5.138 trillion up 7.1 percent from a year earlier. Durable goods shipments were off 0.3 percent for the month, while nondurables were up 0.3 percent. Unfilled orders swelled 0.6 percent to $1.610 trillion, while inventories expanded 0.5 percent to $972.4 billion.
5. The manufacturing sector expanded again in September. The Manufacturing PMI slipped by 1/10th of a point to 54.5. This marked the ninth straight month that the Institute for Supply Management measure was above 50.0, indicating an expanding manufacturing sector. Index components for new orders (55.3) and employment (52.7) both improved during the month, while those for production (56.7) and supplier deliveries (59.0) declined. Twelve manufacturing industries reported growing in September, led by electrical equipment/appliances, nonmetallic mineral products, and primary metals. Two contracted: printing and textile mills. Survey respondents commented on “price volatility,” tariffs, and “the Iran war.”
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending September 26, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 197,000 (-10,000 vs. the previous week, -28,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 200,000 (-14.5% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Construction Spending (August 2026, Value of Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): $2.203 trillion (+0.9% vs. July 2026; -1.7% vs. August 2025).
- Vehicle Sales (September 2026, Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 15.982 million (-3.5% vs. August 2026; -2.2% vs. September 2025).
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (September 2026, Index (1986=100), seasonally adjusted): 81.9 (August 2026: 81.9; September 2025: 97.8
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover (August 2026, Job Openings, seasonally adjusted): 7.079 million (-256,000 vs. July 2026; +2.3% vs. August 2025).
- FHFA House Price Index (July 2026, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.3% vs. June 2026; +2.6% vs. July 2025.
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July 2026, National Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.3% vs. June 2026; +1.9% vs. July 2025.
- Agricultural Prices (August 2026, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): +1.9% vs. July 2026; -2.0% vs. August 2025.
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