Prices surged at the pump, but not as much elsewhere, in March. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 10.
Energy prices surged in March. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, triple its February gain and its largest monthly increase since 2022. Energy prices swelled 10.9 percent, with gasoline (+21.2 percent) and fuel oil (+30.7 percent) reflecting the impact of the Iranian conflict. Food prices held steady during the month. Net of energy and food, core CPI increased by a moderate 0.2 percent in March, matching the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure’s February gain. Prices rose for apparel (+1.0 percent), transportation services (+0.6 percent), shelter (+0.3 percent), and new vehicles (+0.1 percent). Prices fell for medical care commodities (-1.0 percent) and used cars/trucks (-0.4 percent). CPI has risen 3.3 percent over the past 12 months (its largest gain in two years), while core CPI had a 12-month comparable of +2.6 percent.
Personal spending edged up as prices jumped in February. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent after holding steady in January. Real spending on goods increased 0.2 percent (durable goods: +0.9 percent, nondurable goods: -0.2 percent), while services expenditures advanced 0.1 percent. Without inflation adjustments, nominal PCE rose 0.5 percent even as nominal personal and disposable income both fell 0.1 percent. After adjusting for inflation, disposable income plummeted 0.5 percent. The savings rate dropped by half a percentage point to 4.0 percent. Over the past year, real PCE has grown 2.5 percent, fueled by a 1.1 percent increase in real disposable income. The same Bureau of Economic Analysis report shows the PCE Price Index rising 0.4 percent during the month and 2.8 percent over the past year. Netting out both energy and food, the core PCE Price Index grew 0.4 percent in February and 3.0 percent over the past year.
Q4 economic growth was worse than previously believed. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate of Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has the U.S. economy expanding at a tepid 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This was down from the previous estimates of 1.4 percent and 0.7 percent growth from the two previously released estimates (due to lower-than previously reported investment levels. GDP rose 4.4 percent in Q3 and was up 2.1 percent for all of 2025. GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 was 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Corporate profits were up 6.0 percent on an annualized basis for the quarter and 9.6 percent year-over-year.
Factory orders were flat in February. New orders for manufactured goods increased by a minuscule $0.3 billion to a seasonally adjusted $619.6 billion. Over the first two months of 2026, new orders were 3.7 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. In February, transportation goods orders fell 5.3 percent (mainly due to declining aircraft orders). Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.2 percent for the month, with the year-to-date comparable at +1.7 percent. The Census Bureau also reports that shipments advanced 1.4 percent to $623.2 billion. Year-to-date, shipments were up 2.7 percent. Unfilled orders ($1.539 trillion) and inventories ($950.5 billion) were both up 0.1 percent.
Consumer sentiment further weakened in early April. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.7 points to a seasonally adjusted 47.6 (1966Q1=100). The index has declined 8.8 percent over the past year. The current conditions component lost 5.7 points to 50.1, while the expectations measure fell 5.6 points to 46.1. The press release noted that “many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy.” One-year inflation expectations rose by a full percentage point to +4.8 percent, while anticipated long-term inflation was at +3.4 percent.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending April 4, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 219,000 (+16,000 vs. the previous week, -4,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 209,500 (-6.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Services PMI (March 2026, Index (>50=Growing Service Sector, seasonally adjusted): 54.0 (February 2026: 56.1; March 2025: 50.8).
- Monthly Treasury Report (March 2026, Federal Government Budget Deficit Over 1st 6 Months of Fiscal Year): -$1.169 trillion (-10.6% vs. 1st 6 months of FY2025).
- Wholesale Trade (February 2026, Merchant Wholesalers’ Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $919.6 billion (+0.8% vs. January 2026; +1.8% vs. February 2025).
- State Employment (January 2026, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Increased in 5 states, decreased in the District of Columbia, and held steady in 45 states vs. December 2025. Increased in 4 states, decreased in 1 state and the District of Columbia, and held steady in 45 states vs. January 2025.
- Consumer Credit (February 2026, Outstanding Non-Real Estate Consumer Credit Balances, seasonally adjusted): $5.117 trillion (+$9.5 billion vs. January 2026; +3.2% vs. February 2025).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 