Most Fed members choose to adopt a wait-and-see approach about what to do next. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending March 20.
Added instability gave the Fed another reason to hold still. The policy statement issued after this past week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was largely unchanged from the one released in late January. It noted that the U.S. economy was “expanding at a solid pace,” unemployment was “little changed in recent months,” and that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” A new detail was the note that the impact of the U.S. military’s action against Iran was “uncertain,” adding to the “elevated” uncertainty already present in the economy. As a result, the committee voted, with one dissent from Stephen Miran, to keep the fed funds target rate at 3.50 – 3.75 percent, as it remained “strongly committed” to its dual mandate of “maximum employment” and two-percent inflation. The economic projections released coincidentally forecast a single quarter-point cut in the fed funds rate this year and another one next year. The median forecast has headline and core inflation both at +2.7 percent this year, with the economy expanding by 2.4 percent.
Manufacturing output grew in February. The Federal Reserve estimates that manufacturing production increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent, smaller than January’s 0.7 percent advance. Production of durable (+0.2 percent) and nondurable (+0.1 percent) goods experienced modest increases. Overall industrial production grew by 0.2 percent, with output up 0.8 percent in the mining sector but down 0.6 percent among utilities. Manufacturing production was 1.3 percent higher than its year-ago level, while total industrial production has a 12-month growth rate of +1.4 percent. Manufacturing capacity utilization remained steady in February at 76.3 percent, below its 54-year average of 78.2 percent.
Factory orders edged up in January. New orders for manufactured goods totaled a seasonally adjusted $620.1 billion, a 0.1 percent rise for the month and a 3.5 percent increase from a year earlier. The Census Bureau indicates that durable goods orders were flat during the month, but those for nondurables grew by 0.3 percent. Shipments went up 0.5 percent to $612.9 billion, a 1.4 percent increase from a year earlier. Durable goods shipments rose by 0.6 percent, while nondurables advanced by 0.3 percent. Manufacturers continued rebuilding their order backlogs, with unfilled orders climbing 0.8 percent to $1.540 trillion. Inventories expanded by 0.1 percent to $949.8 billion.
Wholesale prices accelerated in February. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking its largest gain since July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measure has risen 3.4 percent over the past year. Core PPI (excluding energy, food, and trade services) was up 0.5 percent, its biggest rise since October. Over the last 12 months, Core PPI has increased 3.5 percent. Goods prices jumped by 1.1 percent, with energy and food prices rising by 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. (Note that this report that does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices resulting from the military in the Middle East.) Services PPI advanced 0.5 percent, including a 0.4 percent increase for trade services.
New home sales slumped in January. The Census Bureau reports that sales of new single-family homes plummeted 17.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 587,000. Sales were 11.3 percent lower than the same period last year. Month-over-month, sales declined in all four Census regions, and year-over-year, they fell in the South and West. There were 476,000 unsold new homes on the market, which is a 0.4 percent increase from December 2025 and a 4.0 percent decrease compared to January 2025), the equivalent of a 9.7-month supply. The median sales price of $400,500 was down 6.8 percent from a year earlier.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending March 14, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 205,000 (-8,000 vs. the previous week, -20,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 210,750 (-7.6% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Pending Home Sales (February 2026, Index (2001=100), seasonally adjusted): 72.1 (+1.8% vs. January 2026; -0.8% vs. February 2025).
- Housing Market Index (March 2026, Index (>50=Majority of Homebuilders Feel Confident About the Current and Near-Term Outlook for Housing, seasonally adjusted): 38 (February 2026: 37; March 2025: 39).
- Wholesale Trade (January 2026, Merchant Wholesaler Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $909.3 billion (-0.5% vs. December 2025; +1.0% vs. January 2025).
- Treasury International Capital Flows (January 2026, Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities, not seasonally adjusted): +$63.5 billion (December 2025: +$121.4 billion; January 2025: +$60.7 billion).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 