The U.S. experienced sluggish economic growth in February. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending March 27.
Economic growth was lukewarm in February. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) lost 31 basis points to -0.11. The CFNAI has been between -0.70 and zero for nine of the past 12 months, indicating that the U.S. economy has been growing at a rate slower than its historical average for most of the past year. Only 31 of the 85 CFNAI components contributed positively to the index, while the remaining 54 had a negative impact. Components related to personal consumption and housing added one basis point to the CFNA, whereas those associated with employment (-10 basis points), production (-0.01), and sales, orders, and inventories (-0.01) were negative. The CFNAI three-month moving average improved by one basis point to -0.01.
Consumer sentiment weakened in March. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped by 3.3 points to a seasonally adjusted 53.3 (1966Q1=100). The index was 6.5 percent below its year-ago reading. The current conditions index decreased by 0.8 points to 55.8 (-12.5 percent compared to March 2025), while consumer expectations plummeted by 4.9 points to 51.7 (-1.7 percent versus March 2025). The press release noted that two-thirds of the respondents completed the survey after the start of the military conflict in Iran, and stated that middle- and higher-income Americans were “buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict.” One-year inflation expectations increased to +3.8 percent.
Construction spending slowed in January. The seasonally adjusted annualized value of construction put in place decreased by 0.3 percent to $2.190 trillion. Despite the decline, the Census Bureau measure was 1.0 percent ahead of its year-ago pace. Private-sector construction slumped 0.6 percent to an annualized $1.661 trillion (-0.1 percent versus January 2025). Residential construction spending slowed by 0.8 percent during the month to $933.0 billion, with decreases in both new single-family (-0.2 percent) and multi-family (-0.7 percent) properties. Nonresidential private-sector construction spending declined 0.4 percent. Public sector construction spending increased by 0.6 percent to $529.2 billion (+4.5 percent versus January 2025).
Productivity increased late last year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that nonfarm business labor productivity increased by 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis during the fourth quarter of 2025. This growth resulted from a 1.5 percent rise in output, while hours worked decreased by 0.2 percent. Over the past year, nonfarm business output grew by 2.8 percent, with hours worked edging up by 0.2 percent, leading to a 2.5 percent increase in nonfarm business productivity. Productivity in the manufacturing sector declined by 2.5 percent in the final three months of 2025 but rose by 2.1 percent for the year. During Q4, productivity decreased in both durable (-3.3 percent) and nondurable (-1.2 percent) manufacturing.
First-time jobless claims remained in check in mid-March. There were 210,000 seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims filed during the week ending March 21. While an increase of 5,000 from the previous week, the Department of Labor measure was down 14,000 claims from the same week a year earlier. The four-week moving average of 210,500 was down 5.9 percent year-over-year. 2.131 million people were receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending March 7, down 0.9 percent from the same week in 2025.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Import Prices (February 2026, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +1.3% vs. January 2026; +1.3% vs. February 2025. Nonfuel Imports: +1.1% vs. January 2026; +2.5% vs. February 2025.
- Export Prices (February 2026, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +1.5% vs. January 2026; +3.5% vs. February 2025. Non-agricultural Exports: +1.7% vs. January 2026; +3.8% vs. February 2025.
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 