A Slumping Labor Market: What We Learned During the Week of March 2 – 6

The U.S. economy failed to create jobs for a second month in a row. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending March 6. 

#1

Employers employed fewer workers in February. Nonfarm payrolls declined by a seasonally adjusted 92,000. This followed a 17,000 payroll decrease in December. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that private-sector employers shed 86,000 jobs, with the largest drops in leisure/hospitality (-27,000), health care/social assistance (-18,600), manufacturing (-12,000), transportation/warehousing (-11,300), and construction (-11,000). Government payrolls contracted by 6,000 workers. Average weekly earnings of $1,280.08 was up 4.1 percent from a year earlier.

Based on a separate survey of households, the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage points to 4.4 percent. 18,000 people entered the labor force, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.0 percent. The 25-54 labor force participation rate also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 83.9 percent. The typical unemployed person has been jobless for 11.1 weeks, with 41.4 percent being unemployed for at least 15 weeks. Part-time workers for “economic reasons” declined by 477,000 to 4.396 million. The broadest measure of labor underutilization (the U-6 series) decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9 percent.

Retail sales fell in January. Retail and food service sales declined 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $733.5 billion. This left the Census Bureau measure 3.2 percent ahead of its year-ago level. Sales over the past three months (November–January) were 2.9 percent higher than the same period last year. Sales at auto/parts dealers (-0.9 percent) and gas stations (-2.9 percent) both dropped (the latter because gas prices had been falling until this week). After removing both, core retail sales increased 0.3 percent for the month and 4.7 percent compared to last year. Sales increased at furniture stores (+0.7 percent), building material retailers (+0.6 percent), and grocery stores (+0.2 percent). Sales decreased at retailers focused on health/personal care (-3.0 percent), apparel (-1.7 percent), sporting goods/hobbies (-1.2 percent), and electronics/appliances (-0.6 percent). Sales also fell at department stores (-6.0 percent) and restaurants/bars (-0.2 percent).

The manufacturing sector expanded in February. The Manufacturing PMI slipped 0.2 points to 52.4. This was the second consecutive month that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained above 50.0, indicating an expanding manufacturing sector. Measures for new orders (55.8) and production (53.5) decreased, while employment (48.8) and inventories (48.8) improved. Twelve manufacturing industries reported growth during the month, led by printing, textiles, and primary metals. The press release noted that input prices continued to rise, with 14 industries reporting higher raw-material costs.

The service sector gained momentum in February. The ISM’s Services PMI rose by 2.3 points to 56.1, its best reading since July 2022. Measures for business activity/production (59.9), new orders (58.6), employment (51.8), and inventories (56.4) all increased. Fourteen service-sector industries reported growth during the month, led by mining, information, and real estate. The press release noted that “services companies have developed capabilities to routinely address shifts in tariff policies.”

Labor productivity remained strong during Q4. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that hours worked in the nonfarm business sector declined by 0.2 percent, while output increased by 2.8 percent. As a result, nonfarm business productivity grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent during the last three months of 2025. Compared to the previous year, nonfarm business productivity rose by 2.8 percent, supported by a 0.2 percent increase in hours worked and a 3.0 percent rise in output. Manufacturing output fell by 1.9 percent in Q4, with both output and hours worked decreasing by 2.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Both durable (-3.0 percent) and nondurable (-0.2 percent) manufacturing sectors experienced declines in productivity.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

  • Jobless Claims (Week ending February 28, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 213,000 (Unchanged vs. the previous week, -11,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 215,750 (-4.7% vs. the same week a year earlier).
  • Import Prices (January 2026, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.2% vs. December 2025; -0.1% vs. January 2025. Nonfuel Imports: +0.5% vs. December 2025; +1.2% vs. January 2025.
  • Export Prices (January 2026; All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.6% vs. December 2025; +2.6% vs. January 2025. Nonagricultural Exports: +0.7% vs. December 2025; +2.7% vs. January 2025.
  • Vehicle Sales (February 2026, Auto and Light Truck Sales, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 15.751 million cars (+6.3% vs. January 2026; -1.4% vs. February 2025.
  • Beige Book

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.

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