Adding Health Jobs: What We Learned During the Week of February 9 – 13

Health care drove job gains early this year. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending February 13. 

One industry was largely responsible for job creation in January. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 130,000, the largest rise in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data series since December 2024. The private sector added 172,000 workers, with 123,500 of the net gain in health care/social assistance. Professional/business services (+34,000) and construction (+33,000) were the only other sectors that added more than 10,000 workers. Government payrolls decreased by 42,000. The report also included the annual data series benchmarking, which resulted in a downward revision of 2025 payroll gains from a so-so +584,000 to a tepid +181,000 (2024: +1.46 million). Average weekly earnings in January were $1,274.93, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier. 

A separate household survey shows the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 percent. The labor force increased by 387,000, leading to a 0.1 percentage point rise in the labor force participation rate. The 25-54 labor force participation rate jumped by 0.3 percentage points to 84.1 percent, its highest since 2000. The median duration of unemployment was 11.1 weeks, a decrease of 0.3 weeks from December. Additionally, 4.888 million people were employed part-time but wanting full-time work, dropping by 453,000 for the month. The broadest measure of labor underutilization (U-6) declined by 0.4 percentage points to 8.0 percent. 

Inflation remained in relative check in January. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent, down from the 0.3 percent rise reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in December. Energy CPI decreased by 1.5 percent (gasoline: -3.2 percent), while food prices rose by 0.2 percent. Excluding both, core CPI increased by 0.3 percent. Prices went up for transportation services (+1.4 percent), medical care services (+0.3 percent), apparel (+0.3 percent), shelter (+0.2 percent), and new vehicles (+0.1 percent). Used car/truck prices dropped by 1.8 percent, and medical care commodities declined by 0.1 percent. Over the past year, CPI increased by 2.4 percent, with the core index up by 2.5 percent over 12 months. 

Retail sales were sluggish in December. Retail and food services sales remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted $735.0 billion. The Census Bureau measure increased by 2.4 percent compared to a year earlier. Retail sales during the final three months of 2025 were 3.0 percent higher than their year-earlier levels. Motor vehicle and parts dealers reported a 0.2 percent decrease in sales, while gas stations experienced a 0.3 percent rise in transactions. After accounting for both, core retail sales were flat for the month and 3.5 percent above December 2025 levels. Sales grew at retailers specializing in building materials (+1.2 percent), sporting goods and hobbies (+0.4 percent), and groceries (+0.1 percent). Conversely, sales declined at furniture stores (-0.9 percent), apparel retailers (-0.7 percent), department stores (-0.7 percent), electronic and appliance retailers (-0.4 percent), and restaurants/bars (-0.1 percent).

Home sales froze in January. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales plummeted 8.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted 3.91 million units. Transactions were 4.4 percent below year-ago levels. Sales declined sharply across all four Census regions on both a month-to-month and year-over-year basis. There were 1.22 million unsold homes on the market (a 3.7-month supply), down 0.8 percent for the month but up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. The median sales price of $396,800 increased slightly by 0.9 percent compared to a year earlier. NAR suggested (but was uncertain if) the decline was caused by January’s cold weather. 

Small business owners’ sentiment remained steady in January. The Small Business Optimism Index dipped by 0.2 points to a seasonally adjusted 99.3 (1985=100). The National Federation of Independent Business measure was at 102.8 a year earlier. Seven of ten index components declined during the month, including significant drops in expected economic conditions and current job openings. Improvements were seen in indices for expected real sales, expected credit conditions, and whether it is a good time to expand. The press release noted that survey respondents were “still waiting for noticeable economic growth.”

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending February 7, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 227,000 (-5,000 vs. the previous week, +12,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 219,500 (+1.0% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• Import Prices (December 2025, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. November 2025; Unchanged vs. December 2024. Nonfuel Imports: +0.2% vs. November 2025; +0.8% vs. December 2024.
• Export Prices (December 2025, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.3% vs. November 2025; +3.1 vs. December 2024. Nonagricultural Exports: +0.3% vs. November 2025; +3.1% vs. December 2024.
• Business Inventories (November 2025, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.678 trillion (+0.1% vs. October 2025; +1.2% vs. November 2024).
• Monthly Treasury Statement (January 2026, Fiscal Year-to-Date Federal Budget Deficit): -$697.0 billion (-17.0% vs. 1^st four months of FY2025).

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.