The Federal Reserve left its short-term interest rate target alone. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending January 30.
The Fed held firm. The policy statement released after this past week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting described the U.S. economy as “expanding at a solid pace,” but also noting that there have been “low” job gains and “somewhat elevated” inflation. Additionally, the Committee continued to see risks to “both sides of its dual mandate” of two percent inflation and maximum employment. Consequently, the Committee kept the fed funds target rate at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent. Two FOMC members dissented, wanting a quarter-point cut in the target rate.
Aircraft boosted November factory orders. New orders for manufactured goods increased for the third time in four months, rising 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted $621.6 billion. The Census Bureau reports year-to-date factory orders up 3.4 percent from 2024 to $6.702 trillion. Transportation orders surged 14.7 percent, with civilian aircraft orders jumping 97.6 percent. Orders excluding transportation goods grew 0.2 percent in November, with year-to-date orders up 0.7 percent compared to the same months in 2024. Durable goods orders rose 5.3 percent during the month, while nondurables remained flat. Shipments fell 0.1 percent to $606.3 billion, marking its third decline in four months. Year-to-date shipments increased 1.5 percent to $6.635 trillion. Unfilled orders grew 1.4 percent to $1.514 trillion, while inventories expanded 0.1 percent to $948.4 billion.
Wholesale prices rose in December. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent, marking the biggest single-month gain for the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure since September. Core PPI, which excludes energy, food, and trade services, grew by 0.4 percent. While goods PPI was unchanged during the month, wholesale prices for energy (-1.4 percent) and food (-0.3 percent) declined. PPI for services jumped 0.7 percent, driven by significant increases in trade services (+1.7 percent) and transportation/warehousing (+0.5 percent). Over the past year, PPI has increased 3.0 percent, with core PPI rising 3.5 percent.
Consumer sentiment deteriorated in January. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plummeted by 9.7 points to a seasonally adjusted 84.5 (1985=100). This was the index’s lowest reading since May 2014. The current conditions index fell 9.9 points to 113.7, while the expectations measure decreased by 9.5 points to 65.1. Historically, an expectations index below 80 signals a potential recession. 15.6 percent of survey respondents expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, less than the 22.9 percent who foresee a worsening. Additionally, 28.5 percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs in six months, compared with 13.9 percent who expect more job opportunities.
Both imports and the trade deficit surged in November. Exports fell 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted $292.1 billion, while imports rose 5.0 percent to $348.9 billion. The resulting trade deficit of -$56.8 billion represented a 94.6 percent increase in the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis measure. The year-to-date trade deficit was 4.1 percent below the same period last year at -$839.5 billion. The goods deficit grew by $27.9 billion to -$86.9 billion, and the services surplus increased by $0.3 billion to +$30.1 billion. The increase in the goods deficit reflects sharp rises in imports of pharmaceuticals, computers, and semiconductors, along with notable declines in exports of nonmonetary gold, pharmaceuticals, precious metals, and crude oil. The U.S. recorded its largest goods deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending January 24, 2026, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 209,000 (-1,000 vs. the previous week, -1,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 206,250 (-3.4% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Productivity (2025Q3-Revised, Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): +4.9% vs. 2025Q2; +1.9% vs. 2024Q3
- Wholesale Trade (November 2025, Merchant Wholesaler Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $915.0 billion (+0.2% vs. October 2025; +1.8% vs. November 2024.
- FHFA House Price Index (November 2025, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.6% vs. October 2025; +1.9% vs. November 2024.
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (November 2025, National Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.4% vs. October 2025; +1.4% vs. November 2024.
- State Employment (December 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Unchanged in all 50 states and the District of Columbia vs. November 2025. Increased in 8 states, decreased in the District of Columbia, and Unchanged in 42 states vs. December 2024.
- Agricultural Prices (December 2025, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): -3.1% vs. November 2025; -4.6% vs. December 2024.
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 