Real estate highlighted the data released during the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending January 2.
More Americans signed contracts to buy homes in November. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index added 2.5 points to a seasonally adjusted 79.2 (2001=100). The index measures “signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops.” This was the index’s highest reading since February 2023, up 2.6 percent from a year earlier. The index rose in all four Census regions during the month, from a 9.2 percent surge in the West to a 1.3 percent gain in the Midwest. Year-to-year comparisons were positive in all four Census regions. The press release credits the increase to “improving inventory choices.”
Unemployment filings slowed during the final days of 2025. The Department of Labor reports that there were 199,000 seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending December 27. This was down 16,000 from the previous week and 10,000 from the same week a year earlier. In fact, jobless claims have remained at low levels for most of the past year (and for several years before that, too). The four-week moving average for first-time claims, at 218,750, was 1.6 percent below year-ago levels. During the week ending December 13, 2.022 million people (not seasonally adjusted) received some form of unemployment benefits, up 2.4 percent from the prior year.
Oil inventories narrowed slightly in late December. The Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories shrank by 1.9 million barrels during the week ending December 26, totaling 422.9 million barrels. Inventories rose by 1.8 percent compared to the same period last year, but three percent below its five-year average. Motor gasoline inventories swelled by 5.8 million barrels to 218.8 million barrels, a 1.3 percent rise over last year. Distillate fuel oil stocks grew by 5.0 million barrels to 115.6 million barrels, reflecting a 0.7 percent increase year over year.
Home prices increased in October. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) jumped 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking its biggest single-month gain since July. The HPI, which tracks single-family home prices involved in repeat sales using conforming mortgages, has risen 1.7 percent over the past year. Prices went up during the month in seven of nine Census regions, including significant increases in the West South Central (+1.0 percent) and New England (+0.9 percent) regions. Conversely, prices declined in the East South Central (-0.4 percent) and South Atlantic (-0.2 percent) regions.
Another home price index showed the same. The national S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased by 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during October, doubling September’s 0.2 percent rise. Over the past 12 months, the index has grown a modest 1.4 percent. In October, prices rose in 14 of 19 tracked metro areas, led by San Francisco (+1.3 percent), Phoenix (+0.9 percent), San Diego (+0.6 percent), and Chicago (+0.6 percent). Nine of 19 markets reported year-over-year price gains, led by Chicago (+5.8 percent), New York City (+5.0 percent), and Cleveland (+4.1 percent).
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Agricultural Prices (November 2025, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): +3.8% vs. October 2025; +3.8% vs. November 2024
- FOMC Minutes
The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.
What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 