Chilly Retail Sales: November 24 – 28

More economic data from earlier this fall presents a mixed picture. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 28.

Retail sales were tepid in September. Retail and food services sales advanced 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $733.3 billion, well below the 0.6 percent rise reported by the Census Bureau in August. Q3 sales were 4.5 percent higher than those from the same three months in 2024. Sales at auto/parts dealers fell 0.3 percent, while they rose 2.0 percent at gas stations. Net of both, core retail sales eked out a 0.1 percent increase in September, with Q3 core sales 1.4 percent above year-ago levels. During the month, sales at retailers focused on health/personal care (+1.1 percent), furniture (+0.6 percent), groceries (+0.3 percent), and building materials (+0.2 percent) grew. Restaurants and bars reported a 0.7 percent increase in sales. Conversely, sales declined at sporting goods/hobby retailers (-2.5 percent), department stores (-0.7 percent), apparel retailers (-0.7 percent), and electronics/appliance stores (-0.5 percent).

Inflation at the wholesale level was moderate in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) grew a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent, up from August’s 0.1 percent decline but still well below July’s 0.8 percent jump. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ estimate of core PPI (which excludes food, energy, and trade services) rose by 0.1 percent, marking its smallest increase in three months. Wholesale prices for food (+1.1 percent) and energy (+3.5 percent) both surged. After removing those, goods PPI increased a more modest 0.2 percent. Services PPI remained unchanged for the month. PPI has risen 2.7 percent over the past year, with the core index up 2.9 percent during the same period.

Consumer confidence fell sharply in November. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.8 points to a seasonally adjusted 88.7 (1985=100). The index was 21.4 percent lower than a year ago. The current conditions index declined by 4.3 points to 126.9, while the expectations measure dropped by 8.6 points to 63.2. The latter has remained below 80 for 10 consecutive months, which the press release says “signals recession ahead.” The press release also noted survey respondents’ comments referred to inflation, tariffs, and politics.

Home purchase contract signing activity picked up in October. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted 76.3 (2001=100). The index was 0.4 percent lower than a year earlier. The index increased during the month in three of four Census regions, with a 1.5 percent decline in the West being the exception. Compared to a year ago, the index was up 2.0 percent in the South and 0.9 percent in the Midwest but fell in the West (-7.0 percent) and Northeast (-1.0 percent). 

Federal government spending rose in October despite the shutdown. The Department of the Treasury reports that U.S. government outlays totaled $688.7 billion during the month, a 17.9 percent increase over last year’s spending. The largest areas of spending were Health and Human Services ($228.1 billion), interest payments ($104.4 billion), and the Department of Defense ($95.5 billion). The government collected $404.4 billion in receipts, including $217.0 billion from individual income taxes, $127.8 billion in social insurance and retirement receipts, $31.4 billion in import duties, and $15.1 billion from corporate taxes.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending November 22, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 216,000 (-6,000 vs. the previous week, Unchanged vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 223,750 (+2.6% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• Business Inventories (August 2025, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.664 trillion (Unchanged vs. July 2025; +1.1% vs. August 2024).
• FHFA House Price Index (September 2025, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): Unchanged vs. August 2025; +1.7% vs. September 2024.
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September 2025, National Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.2% vs. August 2025; +1.3% vs. September 2024.
• Bankruptcy Filings (12-Months Ending September 30, 2025, Business and Non-Business Filings): 557,376 (+10.6% vs 12-months ending September 30, 2024).
• Beige Book

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.