There was a shortage of economic data as the federal government shutdown ended. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 14. (Note that with the government reopening, expect a surge in data releases in the coming weeks.)
Small business owners were somewhat more pessimistic in October. The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index fell by 6/10ths of a point to a seasonally adjusted 98.2 (1986=100). This marked the index’s lowest reading since April. Five of ten index components declined in October, including a sharp drop in earnings trends and significant decreases in expectations for the economy and plans to increase inventories. Four other measures improved during the month, such as expected credit conditions, plans to make capital investments, and assessments of whether it is a good time to expand. The press release noted that owners reported “lower sales and reduced profits,” along with “labor quality” being a challenge.
There were more mortgage delinquencies during Q3. Nearly four percent (well, a seasonally adjusted 3.99 percent to be more precise) of one-to-four unit residential property mortgages were delinquent. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America measure grew six basis points from Q2 and seven basis points from 2024 Q3. 0.20 percent of residential mortgages started foreclosure actions. The MBAA’s press release noted that the states experiencing the largest quarter-to-quarter increases in mortgage delinquencies were Arizona, Louisiana, Indiana, Iowa, and Texas.
Mortgage applications grew last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America’s Market Composite Index increased by 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending November 7. Refinancing activity dropped three percent from the previous week but was 147 percent higher than last year. The home purchase mortgage application index rose six percent for the week, leaving it up 26 percent from a year earlier. 55.6 percent of mortgage applications were for refinancing a home. The average contract rate for 30-year conforming mortgages was 6.34 percent (up three basis points), with 0.62 points.
Oil inventories increased last week. The Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories grew by 6.4 million barrels during the week ending November 7 to 427.6 million barrels. Inventories were 0.5 percent lower than a year earlier. Motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels to 205.1 million barrels, a 0.9 percent decline from a year earlier. Distillate fuel oil stocks slipped 0.6 million barrels to 110.9 million barrels, down 3.1 percent from the previous year.
Natural gas stockpiles expanded slightly in early November. The Energy Information Administration reports U.S. natural gas in storage rose by 45 billion cubic feet during the week ending November 7 to 3,960 billion cubic feet. Natural gas holdings were off 0.2 percent from the same week a year earlier and 4.5 percent above its five-year average of 3,788 billion cubic feet. Natural gas holdings were up week-to-week in all regions of the U.S. but declined year-to-year in the East, Midwest, and Mountain regions.
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 