Americans grew more anxious about the U.S. economy as the federal government shutdown dragged on. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 7. (Note that the federal government shutdown has delayed the release of some economic data.)
Consumer confidence deteriorated in early November. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped by 3.3 points to a seasonally adjusted 50.3 (1966Q1=100). This was not only the index’s lowest reading in three years but also the measure approached its all-time low. The index was 29.9 percent below its year-ago level. Current conditions fell by 6.3 points to 52.3 (-18.2 percent compared to November 2024), while the expectations measure decreased 1.3 points to 49.0 (-36.3 percent compared to November 2024). The press release noted that survey respondents were “expressing worries about negative consequences on the economy” resulting from the month-old federal government shutdown.
Manufacturing activity edged down in October. The Manufacturing PMI fell by 4/10ths of a point to 48.7. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) measure has been below 50.0—the threshold between expanding and contracting manufacturing sectors—for eight consecutive months. Increasing slightly were measures for new orders (49.4) and employment (46.0), while production (48.2) and inventories (45.8) both decreased. Only six manufacturing industries reported growth during the month, led by primary metals, food/beverages, and transportation equipment. The press release noted that 58 percent of the manufacturing sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted during the month.
The service sector expanded in October. The ISM’s Services PMI increased by 2.4 points to 52.4. This marked the eighth month this year with a Services PMI above 50.0. Measures for business activity/production (54.3), new orders (56.3), employment (48.2), and inventories (49.5) all rose. Eleven service industries expanded in October, led by accommodation/food services, retail, and wholesale trade. Survey respondents, composed of supply managers, noted the “impact of tariffs on prices paid,” and several mentioned the federal government shutdown and its effect on business activity and possible future layoffs.
Mortgage applications declined last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America’s Market Composite Index decreased by 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending October 31. Refinancing activity dropped three percent from the previous week but was 151 percent higher than last year. The home purchase mortgage application index fell by one percent for the week but was 26 percent above the level from a year earlier. 57.0 percent of mortgage applications were for refinancing a home. The average contract rate for 30-year conforming mortgages was 6.31 percent (up one basis point), with 0.58 points.
Oil inventories grew last week. The Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels during the week ending October 31 to reach 421.2 million barrels. Inventories were 1.5 percent lower than year-ago levels. Motor gasoline inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels to 206.0 million barrels, a 2.5 percent decrease from a year earlier. Distillate fuel oil stocks declined by 0.7 million barrels to 111.5 million barrels, down 3.7 percent from the previous year.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Consumer Credit (September 2025, Outstanding Non-Real Estate Backed Credit Balances, seasonally adjusted): $5.077 trillion (+$13.1 billion vs. August 2025, +0.4% vs September 2024.
- Natural Gas Storage Report (Week ending October 31, 2025, Working Gas in Underground Storage, not seasonally adjusted): 3,915 billion cubic feet (+33 Bcf vs. prior week; -0.2% vs. a year earlier).
- Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 