The short-term interest rate target is now at its lowest point in three years. Here are five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 31. (Note that the federal government shutdown has delayed the release of some economic data.)
With a quarter-point rate cut, dissent within the Fed has increased. The statement released after this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting notes that the economy is experiencing “moderate” growth, with “slowed” job creation and “somewhat elevated” inflation. Like previous statements, the Fed reaffirmed its dual mandate of “maximum employment” and a two percent inflation rate, noting that risks to the former “rose in recent months.” Consequently, the committee voted to lower the fed funds target rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent (its second cut this year). Additionally, the committee agreed to halt reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as of December 1. Notably, two voting members opposed this decision: Stephen Miran pushed for a half percentage point cut, while Jeffrey Schmid preferred no rate cut.
Consumer sentiment slipped in October. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped a full point to a seasonally adjusted 94.6 (1985=100). The index was down sharply by 13.7 percent compared to a year earlier. The current conditions index increased by 1.8 points to 129.3, while the expectations measure fell by 2.9 points to 129.3. The latter has been below 80 (which “typically signals a recession ahead”) every month since February. The press release noted that prices and inflation led the survey comments, which were mostly negative and also included more references to politics and the current federal government shutdown.
Contract activity for home purchases remained steady in September. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index stayed at 74.8 (2001=100) for the month. The index, which tracks housing contract activity, was 0.9 percent lower than a year earlier. It increased month-over-month and year-over-year in the Northeast and South but decreased in the Midwest and South. The press release notes that “a likely softening job market” is limiting sales activity from benefiting fully from a recent drop in mortgage rates.
Mortgage applications rose last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America’s Market Composite Index jumped 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending October 24. Refinancing activity grew nine percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week last year. The home purchase mortgage application index increased five percent for the week, but was 20 percent higher than a year earlier. 57.1 percent of mortgage applications were for refinancing a home. The average contract rate for 30-year conforming mortgages was 6.30 percent (down seven basis points), with 0.58 points.
Oil inventories contracted last week. The Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6.8 million barrels during the week ending October 24 to 416.0 million barrels. Inventories were 2.2 percent below last year’s levels. Motor gasoline inventories dropped by 6.0 million barrels to 210.7 million barrels, remaining roughly the same as a year earlier. Distillate fuel oil stocks decreased by 3.4 million barrels to 112.2 million barrels, which was a 0.6 percent decrease compared to the previous year.
- Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- FHFA House Price Index (August 2025, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.4% vs. July 2025; +2.3% vs. August 2024.
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August 2025, National Index, seasonally adjusted): +0.2% vs. July 2025; +1.5% vs. August 2024.
- Natural Gas Storage Report (Week ending October 24, 2025, Working Gas in Underground Storage, not seasonally adjusted): 3,882 billion cubic feet (+74 Bcf vs. prior week; +0.8% vs. a year earlier).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 