Americans had a case of the Mondays during the opening days of October. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 10. (Note that the federal government shutdown has delayed the release of some economic data.)
Consumer confidence remained stuck in neutral in early October. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment lost 1/10th of a point to a seasonally adjusted 55.0 (1966Q=100). The index was a sharp 22.0 percent below its year-ago level. The current conditions index improved by 0.6/10ths of a point to 61.0. Despite the increase, the current conditions measure was down 6.0 percent from a year earlier. The expectations index fell by 0.5 point to 51.2. Expectations have been declining rapidly, down 30.9 percent from a year earlier. The press release notes “high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.” Not affecting consumers’ outlook about the economy is the Senate’s inability to approve a budget continuing resolution, which is keeping the federal government closed.
Consumers put away their credit cards in August. The Federal Reserve reports that outstanding consumer credit balances (excluding mortgages) inched by $0.4 billion to a seasonally adjusted $5.061 trillion. Credit balances have edged up 0.2 percent over the past year. Revolving credit balances, which include credit cards, contracted by $6.0 billion to $1.306 trillion. Revolving credit balances have fallen 2.5 percent over the past year. Nonrevolving credit balances, such as car loans and college loans, grew by $6.3 billion to $3.756 trillion. Nonrevolving balances have increased 1.1 percent over the past year.
Mortgage applications slowed in early October. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America’s Market Composite Index slumped 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ending October 3. Refinancing activity decreased by eight percent from the previous week but remained 18 percent higher than the same time last year. The home purchase mortgage application index declined by one percent for the week but was still 14 percent above the level from a year earlier. 53.3 percent of mortgage applications were for refinancing a home. The average contract rate for 30-year conforming mortgages was 6.43 percent, three basis points lower than the prior week, with 0.60 points.
Oil inventories grew in early October. The Energy Information Administration estimates U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels during the week ending October 3, reaching 420.3 million barrels. Inventories were down 0.6 percent from a year earlier and about four percent below their five-year average. Motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 219.1 million barrels. Despite the decline, motor gasoline inventories were 2.0 percent higher than last year.
Natural gas stockpiles increased slightly in early October. The Energy Information Administration reports U.S. natural gas in storage rose by 80 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 3 to 3,641 billion cubic feet. Natural gas holdings were up 0.6 percent from the same week a year earlier, 4.5 percent above its five-year average of 3,484 billion cubic feet, and are considered to be within its five-year historical range. Natural gas holdings were up week-to-week in some regions of the U.S., but declined year-to-year in the East, Midwest, and Mountain regions.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 