Leading economic indicators took a small step backwards mid-summer. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending August 22.
Forward-looking economic measures slipped in July. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 98.7 (2016=100). The LEI has slumped 2.7 percent over the past six months. Six of ten LEI components made positive contributions to the index, led by the stock market and jobless claims. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.2 percent to 114.9, with all four of its components making positive contributions. The CEI has increased 0.9 percent over the past half year. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) held steady in July, leaving the measure up 0.9 percent over the past year. The press release stated, “[p]essimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index.” Nonetheless, the Conference Board does not anticipate a recession.
Existing home sales inched up in July. The National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales report finds sales grew 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.010 million units. Sales increased in the Northeast (+8.7 percent), South (+2.2 percent), and West (+1.4 percent), but declined 1.1 percent in the Midwest. Sales were 0.8 percent ahead of their year-ago pace, with increases everywhere but in the West. Inventories have swelled 15.7 percent over the past year to 1.550 million homes (+0.6 percent versus June 2025 and a 4.6-month supply). The median sales price of $422,400 was up a mere 0.2 percent from a year earlier. The press release notes an “ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability.”
Housing starts picked up further in July. Privately-owned housing starts rose 5.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.428 million units. The Census Bureau measure was up 12.9 percent from July 2024 levels. Starts grew in the Midwest and South but fell in the Northeast and West. Looking towards the future, issued building permits declined 2.8 percent to an annualized 1.354 million (-5.4 percent versus July 2024). Permits increased in the Northeast and Midwest but fell in the South and West. The annualized number of completions jumped 6.0 percent to 1.415 million. Completions were 13.5 percent below year-ago levels.
Homebuilders’ moods remained dour in August. The Housing Market Index (HMI) lost a point to a seasonally adjusted 32. A reading below 50 for the National Association of Homebuilders index means more builders view the market as “poor” versus being “good.” The HMI was last above 50 in April 2024. The index fell in the Northeast, held steady in the Midwest and South, and increased in the West. The current sales index lost a point to 35, while the sales expectations measure was unchanged at 43. The prospective traffic index remained “very low” at 22 despite a two-point gain. The press release notes that “[a]ffordability continues to be the top challenge.”
Employment, on a state-by-state basis, was stable in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that nonfarm payrolls were unchanged in 46 states and the District of Columbia. The states seeing payroll growth during the month were Maryland, Missouri, New York, and South Carolina. On a year-to-year basis, nonfarm payrolls increased in 19 states and held steady in 31 states and the District of Columbia. The unemployment rate increased in July in California (up 1/10th of a percentage point to 5.5 percent), fell by 2/10ths of a percentage point in Alabama (3.0 percent) and Colorado (4.5 percent), and was steady in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Over the past year, the unemployment rate has risen in 17 states and the District of Columbia, declined in five others, and remained steady in the other 28.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending August 16, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 235,000, +11,000 vs. the previous week, +3,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 226,250 (-3.9% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- FOMC Minutes
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 