Stuck in Mud: July 21 – 25

Home sales remained on hold in June. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending July 25.

Existing home sales underwhelmed again. Sales of previously owned homes dropped 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 3.930 million units. The National Association of Realtors measure was unchanged from a year earlier. Only the West saw sales increase in June, with the Midwest and South enjoying year-to-year sales gains. There were 1.530 million homes available for sale (or a 4.7-month supply) at the end of June, down 0.6 percent from May but up 15.9 percent from a year earlier. The median sales price of $435,000 represented a 2.0 percent gain over the past year.

New home sales edged up in June. The Census Bureau reports new single-family home sales advanced 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 628,000 units. Sales improved in the Midwest and South but slowed in the Northeast and West. Sales were 6.6 percent below year-ago levels, with only the Midwest showing a year-to-year gain. There were 511,000 new homes on the market at the end of June, up 1.2 percent for the month and 8.5 percent year-to-year, translating into a 9.8-month supply. The median sales price of $401,800 was 2.9 percent below its June 2024 reading.

Economic activity increased slightly but remained subdued in June. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) added six basis points to -0.10. A negative CFNAI, ranging between -0.70 and zero, indicates that the U.S. economy is expanding more slowly than at its historical average. Only 37 of the CFNAI’s 85 components made positive contributions, with the other 48 being drags. All four categories of components made negative contributions: employment (-0.05), sales/orders/inventories (-0.04), production (-0.01), and personal consumption/housing (-0.01). The CFNAI’s three-month moving average deteriorated by eight basis points to -0.22.

Forward-looking economic measures slipped in June. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 98.8 (2016=100). The LEI has declined by 2.8 percent over the past six months, more than twice the decline observed during the latter half of 2024. Five of ten LEI components made positive contributions, led by the stock market. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.3 percent to 115.1 (+0.8 percent over the past six months). All four CEI components made positive contributions, with personal income leading the way. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) held steady at 119.9 and has increased 1.4 percent over the past six months. The press release reiterated that the “Conference Board does not forecast a recession,” but it does expect economic growth to remain tepid.

Beyond aircraft, durable goods orders inched up in June. New orders for manufactured durable goods plummeted 9.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted $311.8 billion. Over the first half of 2025, the Census Bureau measure was 7.9 percent ahead of the comparable year-ago months. Transportation orders slumped 22.4 percent, with civilian aircraft orders down 51.8 percent (motor vehicles/parts: +0.9 percent). Net of transportation goods, new orders grew 0.2 percent, with year-to-date orders 1.6 percent above their 2024 comparable. Orders increased for primary metals, fabricated metal products, machinery, and electrical equipment/appliances, but declined for computers and communication equipment. Durable goods shipments grew 0.5 percent to $302.5 billion and were up 7.9 percent thus far in 2025.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending July 19, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 217,000, -4,000 vs. the previous week, -19,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 224,500 (-4.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).

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