Personal spending stagnated even as incomes jumped. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 30.
Consumer spending (and prices) inched up in April. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, well below March’s 0.7 percent jump. Goods spending fell 0.2 percent (pulled down by a 0.8 percent decline for durable goods), while services expenditures grew 0.3 percent. Without inflation adjustments, nominal PCE grew 0.2 percent, even as nominal personal income and disposable income both rose 0.8 percent. Real disposable income expanded by 0.7 percent. The savings rate jumped 6/10ths of a percentage point to +4.9 percent. Over the past year, real PCE increased by 3.2 percent, while real disposable income grew by 2.9 percent. The PCE price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—remained in check, increasing by a modest 0.1 percent. The real PCE price index, net of both food and energy, also advanced 0.1 percent. The two price indices have increased by 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, over the past year.
One measure of consumer confidence stabilized in May. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment held steady at a seasonally adjusted 52.2 (1966Q1=100). The index remained 24.5 percent below year-ago levels. The current conditions index declined by 9/10ths of a point to 58.9 (-15.4 percent versus May 2024), while the expectations index edged up 6/10ths of a point to 47.9 (-30.4 percent versus May 2024). One-year anticipated inflation grew by 1/10th of a percentage point to +6.6 percent. The press release notes that while Americans “generally expect tariffs to pass through to consumer prices,” the tax bill moving through Congress “does not appear to be salient” to survey respondents.
Another measure signaled a rebound in sentiment. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose by 12.3 points to a seasonally adjusted 98.0 (1985=100), its first increase in six months. The present conditions index added 4.8 points to 135.9, while the expectations index swelled by 17.4 points to 72.9. Historically, an expectations index reading below 80.0 signals a recession. The press release noted that sentiment improved across all age and income groups. 21.9 percent of consumers reported that business conditions were good, compared to 14.0 percent who said they were “bad.” 31.8 percent of survey respondents report jobs being “plentiful,” while 18.6 percent said that they were “hard to get.”
The U.S. economy contracted slightly during Q1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, compared to a 2.4 percent advance during the final three months of 2024. This reflected a slightly smaller decline from the first estimate reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) a month earlier (-0.3 percent). Weighing on economic growth were (in declining order) net exports, federal government expenditures, and fixed residential investment, partially counteracted by the change in private inventories, fixed nonresidential investment, personal consumption, and state/local government expenditures. Meanwhile, corporate profits declined an annualized 2.9 percent during Q1 after rising 5.4 percent in the final months of 2024.
Aircraft orders fell in April. The Census Bureau estimates new orders for manufactured durable goods plummeted 6.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted $296.3 billion. Year-to-date durable goods orders—$1.179 trillion—were up 4.2 percent over the comparable 2024 months. Civilian aircraft orders dropped 51.5 percent, pulling down transportation goods orders by 17.1 percent. Non-transportation goods orders inched up 0.2 percent to $197.6 billion. Orders increased for computers/electronics and fabricated metal products but declined for electrical equipment/appliances and primary metals. Durable goods shipments grew 0.4 percent to $300.6 billion. Thus far, durable goods shipments have totaled $1.165 trillion, representing a 1.9 percent increase over the comparable months in 2024.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending May 24, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 240,000, +14,000 vs. the previous week, +19,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 230,750 (+4.0% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Pending Home Sales (April 2025, Index (2001=100), seasonally adjusted): 71.3 (-6.3% vs. March 2025; -2.5% vs. April 2024).
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index (March 2025, National Index, seasonally adjusted): -0.3% vs. February 2025, +3.4% vs. March 2024).
- FHFA House Price Index (March 2025, Purchase-Only Index, seasonally adjusted): -0.1% vs. February 2025; +4.0% vs. March 2024).
- Agricultural Prices (April 2025, Prices Received by Farmers, not seasonally adjusted): -3.6% vs. March 2025; +12.4% vs. April 2024).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 