The Slump Continues: May 19 – 23

Homebuyers remained on the sidelines in April. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 23.

Sales of previously owned homes remained sluggish in April. Existing home sales slipped 0.5 percent to a tepid seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.00 million. The National Association of Realtors measure was down 2.0 percent from a year earlier. Sales held steady compared to March in the South while declining in the other three Census regions. Inventories swelled 9.0 percent from March and 20.8 percent from a year earlier to 1.45 million homes. This was the equivalent of a 4.4-month supply. The median sales price of $414,000 was up 1.8 percent from a year earlier.

New home sales jumped in April. The Census Bureau estimates new single-family home sales surged 10.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 743,000 units. Sales were 3.3 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. Sales grew in three of four Census regions on a month-to-month and year-to-year basis (the Northeast was the exception for both comparables). The 504,000 new homes available for sale was off 0.6 percent from March but up 8.6 percent from a year earlier. It also translated into an 8.1-month supply. The median sales price of $407,200 was off 2.0 percent from April 2024.

Forward-looking economic measures suffered their largest monthly in two years in April. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted 99.4 (2016=100). This followed a 0.8 percent decline in March, leaving the LEI down 2.0 percent over the past six months. Only three of the ten LEI components positively contributed to the index: non-aircraft civilian capital goods orders, credit, and manufacturer’s new orders for consumer goods. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) eked out a 1/10^th of a percentage point gain in April, following a 0.3 percent advance during the month, to 114.8. The CEI has risen 1.1 percent over the past six months. Three of four CEI components made positive contributions: personal income, nonfarm payrolls, and manufacturing/trade sales. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.3 percent to 119.3 (+0.8 percent over the past six months). The Conference Board expects “the bulk of the impact of tariffs to hit the economy in Q3.”

Economic growth sharply slowed down in April. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) lost 28 basis points to -0.25 (its lowest reading since January). The CFNAI’s three-month moving average lost three basis points to -0.05 (its lowest point since last November). The CFNAI between -0.70 and zero indicates the U.S. economy was expanding slower than its historical average. Only 30 of 85 CFNAI components made positive contributions to the index, with the other 55 pulling down the measure. All four component categories negatively contributed to the CFNAI: production (-0.18), employment (-0.05), sales/orders/inventories (-0.04), and personal consumption/housing (-0.04).

Payrolls grew in only five states in April. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that nonfarm payrolls increased in five states and held steady in the other 45 states and in the District of Columbia versus March. Those five states were Arizona, Connecticut, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. On a year-to-year basis, nonfarm employment rose in 16 states and was unchanged in 34 states and the District of Columbia. The three states with the largest year-to-year payroll gains were Florida, South Carolina, and Idaho.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending May 17, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 227,000, -2,000 vs. the previous week, +11,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 231,500 (+5.7% vs. the same week a year earlier).

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