Not Yet: May 12 – 16

Inflation remained at the starting gate in April. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 16.

Consumer prices moderately grew in April. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent gain for the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure in March. Energy prices jumped 0.7 percent (due to increases for electricity and natural gas), while food prices slipped 0.1 percent (eggs: -12.7 percent). Net of both, core CPI increased 0.2 percent, double March’s 0.1 percent advance. Prices grew for medical care services (+0.5 percent) and commodities (+0.4 percent), shelter (+0.3 percent), and transportation services (+0.1 percent). Prices declined for used cars/trucks (-0.5 percent) and apparel (-0.2 percent). Over the past year, CPI has risen 2.3 percent, while the core measure has jumped 2.8 percent. Both year-to-year comparables were at four-year lows.

Wholesale prices fell in April. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent after holding steady in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measure was up 2.4 percent from a year earlier (its smallest 12-month comparable since last September). Core PPI (which removes food, energy, and trade services) inched down 0.1 percent after having grown 0.2 percent in March. Core PPI has risen 2.9 percent over the past year. Goods PPI held steady, despite drops for energy (-0.4 percent) and food (-1.0 percent). Services PPI declined 0.7 percent as trade services PPI (i.e., retailer and wholesaler margins) plummeted 1.6 percent.

Retail sales stagnated in April. Retail and food services sales inched up 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $724.1 billion (+5.2 percent versus April 2024). Even with a tepid April, the Census Bureau measure over the past three months was 4.8 percent ahead of its comparable year-ago pace. Sales at motor vehicle/parts dealers and gas stations decreased 0.1 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Net of both, core retail sales grew 0.2 percent in April and 5.4 percent from a year earlier. Sales rose at retailers focused on building materials (+0.8 percent), furniture (+0.3 percent), and electronics/appliances (+0.3 percent). Restaurants/bars saw sales rise 1.2 percent. Sales fell at sporting goods/hobby stores (-2.5 percent), department stores (-1.4 percent), apparel retailers (-0.4 percent), and health/personal care stores (-0.2 percent).

Manufacturing output declined in April. The Federal Reserve estimates manufacturing production decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent after having grown 0.4 percent in March. Durable goods production fell 0.2 percent, pulled down by a 1.9 percent drop for motor vehicles/parts. Nondurables slumped 0.6 percent. Overall industrial production held steady in April following a 0.3 percent decline in March. Mining output slipped 0.3 percent, while utilities output surged 3.3 percent. Relative to a year earlier, manufacturing output has risen 1.2 percent and industrial production has grown 1.5 percent.

Consumer sentiment deteriorated further in early May. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped by another 1.4 points to 50.8 (1966Q1=100) for its second lowest reading ever. The index has declined by 26.5 percent over the past year (and 30 percent since the start of this year). The current conditions index shed 2.2 points to 57.6, while the expectations measure declined by 8/10^ths of a point to 46.5. The 12-month comparables for the two indices were -17.2 percent and -32.4 percent, respectively. One-year inflation expectations continued surging, rising by 8/10^ths of a percentage point to +7.3 percent. Anticipated long-term inflation was at an elevated 4.6 percent. The press release noted that survey respondents across the political spectrum expressed weak sentiment and concerns about prices.

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending May 10, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 229,000, Unchanged vs. the previous week, +7,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 230,500 (+6.1% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• Factory Orders (March 2025, New Orders for Manufactured Goods, seasonally adjusted): $618.8 billion (+4.3% vs. February 2025). Non-transportation goods: $494.2 billion (-0.2% vs. February 2025).
• Import Prices (April 2025, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. March 2025; +0.1% vs. April 2024. Nonfuel Imports: +0.4% vs. March 2025; +1.2% vs. April 2024.
• Export Prices (April 2025, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.1% vs. March 2025; +2.0% vs. April 2024. Nonagricultural Exports: +0.1% vs. March 2025; +1.9% vs. April 2024.
• Small Business Optimism Index (April 2025, Index (1986=100), seasonally adjusted): 95.8 (March 2025: 97.4; April 2024: 89.7).
• Housing Starts (April 2025, Privately-Owned Housing Starts, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 1.361 million (+1.6% vs. March 2025; -1.7% vs. April 2024).
• Housing Market Index (May 2025, Index (>50 = More Homebuilders View Housing Market as “Good” than “Poor,” seasonally adjusted): 34 (April 2025: 40; May 2024: 45).
• Business Inventories (March 2025, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.575 trillion (+0.1% vs. February 2025; +2.5% vs. March 2024).
• Monthly Treasury Statement (April 2025—FY2025 Year-to-Date): -$1.049 trillion (+22.6% vs. comparable FY2024 months).
• Senior Loan Officers Survey

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