Home Sales Stagnate: April 21 – 25

Home Sales Stagnate: What We Learned During the Week of April 21 – 25

Home sales slowed to a 16-year low in March. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 25.

Existing home sales faded in March. The National Association of Realtors reports sales of previously owned homes fell 5.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.020 million units. Sales were 2.4 percent below year-ago levels. Sales declined month-to-month in all four Census regions and year-to-year in the South and Midwest. The number of unsold homes swelled 8.1 percent to 1.330 million units (+19.8 percent versus March 2023), translating into a 4.0-month supply. The median sales price of $403,700 was up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. The press release blames “sluggish” sales on “the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates.”

In contrast, new home sales rose in March. Sales of new single-family homes increased 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 724,000 units. This left the Census Bureau measure 6.0 percent ahead of its year-ago reading. During the month, sales improved in the Midwest and South but declined in the Northeast and West. There were 503,000 new homes on the market (up 0.6 percent for the month and 7.9 percent from a year earlier), the equivalent of an 8.3-month supply. The median sales price of $403,600 was down 7.5 percent from March 2024.

Consumers were even more sour in April. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment lost 4.8 points to a seasonally adjusted 52.2 (1966Q1=100). This was the index’s lowest point since the spring of 1980. The current conditions index shed 4.0 points to 59.8 (-24.3 percent versus April 2024), while the expectations measure fell by 5.9 points to 47.3 (-37.8 percent versus April 2024). The press release noted that the growing pessimism spread across nearly every demographic group and was particularly acute among middle-income households. One-year inflation expectations surged to +6.5 percent (a 44-year high), with anticipated long-term inflation at +4.4 percent.

Economic growth decelerated in March. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) lost 27 basis points to -0.03. A reading below zero indicates the U.S. economy expanded slower than its historical average, with a reading under -0.70 signaling a recession. Forty-one of 85 CFNAI components made positive contributions to the index (the other 44 measures were drags). Among the four categories of components, only those associated with personal consumption/housing made positive contributions. Those linked to production, sales/orders/inventories, and employment made negative contributions. The CFNAI three-month moving average declined by 13 basis points to -0.01.

Forward-looking economic indicators pointed south in March. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.7 percent during the month to 100.5 (2016=100), 1.2 percent below its six-month-ago level. Five of ten LEI positively contributed to the index, led by manufacturing working hours, building permits, and jobless claims. The Coincident Economic Index inched up 0.1 percent to 114.4. The CEI has grown 0.7 percent over the past six months. Three of four CEI components made positive contributions: personal income, manufacturing/trade sales, and nonfarm payrolls. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) slipped 0.1 percent to 119.1. LAG remained 0.7 percent ahead of its September 2024 reading. The press release stressed that the data “does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start.”

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending April 19, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 222,000, +6,000 vs. the previous week, +13,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 220,250 (+3.0% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• Durable Goods (March 2025, New Orders for Manufactured Goods, seasonally adjusted): $315.7 billion (+9.2% vs. February 2025). Net of transportation goods: $191.1 billion (unchanged vs. February 2025).
• Beige Book

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