Retail Sales Jumped in March: April 14 – 18

Consumers rushed to stores and car dealers before tariffs made their presence felt. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 18.

Retail sales rose in March. Retail and food services sales surged 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted $734.9 billion, leaving the Census Bureau measure up 4.6 percent over the past year. Sales at auto dealers and parts stores swelled 5.7 percent (due to buyers trying to get ahead of expected tariffs), while gas stations saw sales fall 2.5 percent (lower prices). Net of both, core retail sales increased 0.8 percent in March and were 4.5 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. Sales increases were widespread, with gains reported for retailers focused on building materials (+3.3 percent), sporting goods/hobbies (+2.4 percent), electronics/appliances (+0.8 percent), apparel (+0.4 percent), and groceries (+0.1 percent). Restaurants/bars enjoyed a 1.8 percent gain in sales. Conversely, sales declined at furniture retailers (-0.7 percent) and department stores (-0.3 percent).

Manufacturing output managed a slight gain in March. The Federal Reserve reports manufacturing output increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent jump in February. Durable goods production rose 0.6 percent, boosted by sizable gains for automobiles and aerospace equipment, while nondurable was unchanged. Overall industrial output declined 0.3 percent in March, following a 0.8 percent advance during the prior month. Mining output gained 0.6 percent, while utilities reported a massive 5.8 percent decline due to above-average temperatures. Relative to a year earlier, manufacturing output was up 1.0 percent and industrial production advanced 1.3 percent.

Housing starts slumped in March. The Census Bureau estimates housing starts plummeted 11.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.324 million units. Starts remained 1.9 percent ahead of year-ago levels. Single-family home starts were off 14.2 percent for the month. Looking towards the future, housing permits were up 1.6 percent for the month to an annualized 1.482 million units. Permits were just 0.2 percent below year-ago levels. Completions slowed 2.1 percent to an annualized 1.549 million homes (+1.9 percent versus March 2025).

Homebuilder confidence stabilized in April. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index (HMI) added a point to a seasonally adjusted 40 after dropping eight points over the two previous months. A reading below 50 indicates that a majority of homebuilders were pessimistic about current and near-term market conditions. The HMI had improved in the Midwest (43) and West (35) but declined in the Northeast (43) and South (38). While the current sales index increased by two points (45), the measure for expected sales dropped by four points (43). The prospective buyers traffic index remained low at 25.

Business sales jump in February. The Census Bureau reports trade sales and manufacturing shipments rose 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $1.921 trillion (+3.6 percent versus February 2024). Business sales were up 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Sales grew among merchant wholesalers (+2.4 percent), manufacturers (+0.7 percent), and retailers (+0.4 percent). Inventories expanded a modest 0.2 percent in February to $2.590 trillion (+2.1 percent versus February 2024). Inventories increased among merchant wholesalers (+0.3 percent), manufacturers (+0.1 percent), and retailers (+0.1 percent). The inventory-to-sales ratio declined by a basis point to 1.35 (February 2024: 1.37), with modest declines for merchant wholesalers (1.35) and manufacturers (1.45) and stability for retailers (1.31).

Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:

• Jobless Claims (Week ending April 12, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 215,000, -9,000 vs. the previous week, +4,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 220,750 (+2.7% vs. the same week a year earlier).
• State Employment (March 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Increased in 6 states and unchanged in 44 states and the District of Columbia vs. February 2025. Increased in 13 states and unchanged in 37 states and the District of Columbia vs. March 2024.
• Import Prices (March 2025, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): -0.1% vs. February 2025; +0.9% vs. March 2024. Nonfuel Imports: +0.1% vs. February 2025; +1.5% vs. March 2024.
• Export Prices (March 2025, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): Unchanged vs. February 2025; +2.4% vs. March 2024. Nonagricultural Exports: -0.1% vs. February 2025; +2.5% vs. March 2024.
• Treasury International Capital Flows (February 2025, Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities, not seasonally adjusted): +$142.7 billion (January 2025: -$1.6 billion; February 2024:  +$117.7 billion).

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