Consumers were starkly more pessimistic in April. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending April 11.
Consumer sentiment deteriorated further in early April. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment lost 6.2 points to a seasonally adjusted 50.8 (1966Q1=100). The index has fallen 34.2 percent over the past year. The current conditions index dove 7.3 points to 56.4 (-28.5 percent versus April 2024), while the expectations measure shed 6.4 points to 47.2 (-37.9 percent versus April 2024). One-year inflation expectations soared to its highest reading since 1981 to 6.7 percent (March 2025: +5.0 percent). The press release notes sentiment worsened “amid growing worries about trade war developments.”
Consumer prices slipped in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, following gains of 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent during the previous two months. Food CPI rose 0.4 percent (eggs: +5.9 percent), while energy prices fell 2.4 percent (gasoline: -6.1 percent). Net of food and energy, core CPI inched up by a modest 0.1 percent. While prices increased for medical care services (+0.5 percent), apparel (+0.4 percent), new vehicles (+0.1 percent), and shelter (+0.1 percent), they fell for transportation services (-1.4 percent), medical care commodities (-1.1 percent), and used cars/trucks (-0.7 percent). CPI has risen 2.4 percent over the past year, while the core measure has gained 2.8 percent (a four-year low).
Declines for food and energy pulled wholesale prices down in March. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand declined a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent following a tepid 0.1 percent gain in February. Core PPI—net of energy, food, and trade services—increased 0.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure’s smallest gain since last October. Food PPI dropped 2.1 percent and energy PPI plummeted 4.0 percent (gasoline: -11.1 percent). Over the past year, PPI has increased 2.7 percent (its smallest year-to-year comparable since last September), while core PPI was up 3.4 percent).
Small business owners’ mood soured in March. The Small Business Optimism Index lost 3.3 points to a seasonally adjusted 97.4 (1986=100). The National Federation of Independent Business measure has declined by 7.7 points since last December but remained 8.9 points ahead of its year-ago reading. Seven of ten index components declined in March, including sharp declines for expected economic conditions and expected sales. The press release notes that small business owners had “scaled back expectations on sales growth” in the face of higher uncertainty.
Wholesaler inventories grew modestly in February. Merchant wholesaler inventories increased 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted $902.3 billion, leaving the Census Bureau measure up 1.1 percent from a year earlier. Durable and nondurable goods inventories expanded 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Wholesaler sales surged 2.4 percent to $696.4 billion (+4.3 percent versus February 2024). Wholesale durable goods sales jumped 3.4 percent, whereas the nondurable measure increased 1.4 percent. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio declined by two basis points to 1.30 (February 2024: 1.34). The durable goods I/S ratio fell by five basis points to 1.69 (February 2024: 1.79), while the nondurables measure slipped a basis point to 0.93 (matching its year-ago mark).
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending April 5, 2025, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 223,000, +4,000 vs. the previous week, +11,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 223,000 (+3.5% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Monthly Treasury Statement (March 2025, FY 2025 Year-to-Date Federal Government Budget Deficit): -$1.307 trillion (+22.8% vs. FY2024 year-to-date).
- FOMC minutes
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 