A Quiet Week…For Economics: January 20 – 24

Existing home sales data was one of the few data releases made this past week. Here are the five (actually 3) things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending January 24.

Sales of previously owned homes grew for a third consecutive month in December. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.24 million units. Sales were 9.3 percent ahead of year-ago levels. Sales improved in three of four Census regions, with a slight 1.0 percent decline reported in the Midwest. Inventories shrank 13.5 percent to 1.15 million homes, its smallest since last March and the equivalent to a paltry 3.3-month supply. The median sales price of $404,000 was up 6.0 percent from a year earlier. The press release notes that “job and wage gains, along with increased inventory,” are supporting the recent market improvements.

Consumer confidence wobbled in early January as inflation concerns grew. The preliminary January reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment lost 2.9 points to a seasonally adjusted 71.1 (1966Q1=100). The index was 10.0 percent below its January 2024 mark. The current conditions index lost 9/10^ths of a point to 74.0 (-9.6 percent versus January 2024), while the expectations index fell by 4.0 points to 69.3 (-10.1 percent versus January 2024). Nearly half of survey respondents expect unemployment “to rise in the year ahead.” One-year inflation expectations jumped by a half percentage point to +3.3 percent, with comments linking tariffs to possible higher prices.

Initial jobless claims were steady in mid-January. First-time claims made for unemployment insurance benefits grew by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 during the week ending January 18. The Department of Labor measure was a 2,000 increase from the same week a year earlier. The four-week moving average of 223,250 initial jobless claims was up 5.3 percent from a year earlier. 2.301 million people (not seasonally adjusted) were receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending January 4, up 7.1 percent from the same week a year earlier.

The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Kevin’s current employer. No endorsements are implied.