Economic activity improved in November. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending December 27.
Economic activity picked up in November. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) added 38 basis points to -0.12. A CFNAI between -0.70 and zero indicates a U.S. economy expanding slower than its historical average. Thirty-six of 85 economic CFNAI components made positive contributions to the index, with the other 49 being drags on growth. All four major CFNAI component categories made negative contributions: production (-0.08), sales/orders/inventories (-0.02), personal consumption/housing (-0.02), and employment (-0.01). The CFNAI’s three-month moving average deteriorated by four basis points to -0.31.
New home sales rose in November. The Census Bureau estimates new single-family home sales jumped 5.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 627,000. Sales were 8.7 percent ahead of their year-ago pace. Sales improved month-to-month and year-to-year in the Midwest and South but slowed in the Northeast and West. There were 490,000 unsold new homes on the market at the end of November, up 2.1 percent for the month and 8.9 percent from a year earlier. The median sales price of $402,600 was down 6.3 percent from a year earlier.
A consumer sentiment measure lost what it gained during the prior month in December. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index shed 8.1 points to a seasonally adjusted 104.7 (1985=100). The index has remained within a tight range for much of the past 3.5 years. The current conditions index lost 1.2 points during the month to 140.2, while the expectations measure slumped 12.6 points to 81.1. The press release noted that older Americans and those in the middle class were most likely to have reported a deterioration in sentiment. The release also indicated that more survey respondents mentioned politics and tariffs were affecting their economic outlook.
Durable factory goods orders slowed in November. The Census Bureau reports new orders for manufactured durable goods dropped 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $285.1 billion. Durable goods year-to-date totaled $3.095 trillion, down 1.3 percent from the comparable 2023 months. Transportation goods orders fell 2.9 percent, pulled down by declines in civilian (-7.0 percent) and defense (-2.6 percent). Net of transportation goods, core durable goods orders slowed slipped 0.1 percent. Durable goods shipment declined 0.1 percent to $285.1 billion. Year-to-date, durable goods shipments were up 1.6 percent to $3.147 trillion.
Jobless claims remained low in mid-December. There were a seasonally adjusted 219,000 first-time claims made for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending December 21. This represented a negligible 1,000 claim decline from the prior week and a modest 6,000 increase from the same week a year earlier for the Department of Labor measure. The four-week moving average of 226,500 initial jobless claims was up 7.7 percent from a year earlier. 1.893 million people (not seasonally adjusted) were receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending December 7, up 1.6 percent from the same week a year earlier.
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 