Retail sales were solid as inflation picked up in October. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending November 15.
Retail sales were resilient in October. Retail and food services sales grew 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted $718.9 billion. Including an upwardly revised 0.8 percent jump in September, the Census Bureau measure was 2.8 percent ahead of year-ago levels. Gas station sales inched up 0.1 percent, while those at auto dealers/parts stores rose 1.9 percent. Net of both, core retail sales were up 0.1 percent in October and 3.8 percent from a year earlier. Rising were sales at retailers focused on electronics/appliances (+2.3 percent), building materials (+0.5 percent), and groceries (+0.1 percent). Restaurants/bars reported a 0.7 percent gain. Sales fell at furniture stores (-1.3 percent), sporting goods/hobby retailers (-1.1 percent), and health/personal care stores (-1.1 percent).
Year-to-year consumer inflation slightly accelerated in October. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent for the fourth consecutive month, leaving the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure up 2.6 percent over the past 12 months (up 1/10th of a percentage point from September’s report). Energy prices held steady while food CPI gained 0.2 percent. Net of both, core CPI was up 0.3 percent for the third consecutive month. Core consumer prices have risen 3.3 percent over the past year. Growing were prices for used cars/trucks (+2.7 percent), shelter (+0.4 percent), transportation services (+0.4 percent), and medical care services (+0.4 percent). Prices fell for apparel (-1.5 percent) and medical care commodities (-0.2 percent). New vehicle prices were flat for the month.
Wholesale prices rose in October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent, up from September’s 0.2 percent gain for the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure. The core wholesale price index—which removes energy, food, and trade services—jumped 0.3 percent for its biggest gain since July. Goods PPI edged up 0.1 percent, even as prices declined for energy (-0.2 percent) and food (-0.1 percent). Services PPI advanced 0.3 percent, pulled up by a 0.5 percent rise in transportation/warehousing prices. PPI has risen 2.4 percent over the past year, with the core measure’s 12-month comparable at +3.5 percent.
Manufacturing output slowed in October. The Federal Reserve reports manufacturing output declined a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent drop in September. Whereas durable goods production slumped 1.2 percent (with widespread declines across most product categories), that of nondurables edged up 0.4 percent. Overall industrial production dropped 0.3 percent in October following the prior month’s 0.3 percent decline. Mining and utilities output increased 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. Relative to a year earlier, both manufacturing and overall industrial production were 0.3 percent under year-ago levels.
Consumer sentiment hit a six-month high in November. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment added 2.5 points to a seasonally adjusted 73.0 (1966Q1=100). The measure was up 19.1 percent above year-ago levels. The current conditions index slipped a half point to 64.4 (-5.7 percent versus November 2023). The expectations index jumped by 4.4 points in November and an impressive 38.2 percent from a year earlier to 78.5. One-year inflation expectations slipped 1/10th of a percentage point to +2.6 percent, whereas longer-term expectations edged up 1/10th of a percentage point to +3.1 percent. The press release notes that, given the timing of the surveys, the results do not reflect a significant reaction to the election outcome.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending November 9, 2024, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 217,000, -4,000 vs. the previous week, -11,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 221,000 (+1.3% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Import Prices (October 2024, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.3% vs. September 2024; +0.8% vs. October 2023. Nonfuel Imports: +0.2% vs. September 2024; +2.3% vs. October 2023.
- Export Prices (October 2024, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.8% vs. September 2024; -0.1% vs. October 2023. Nonagricultural Exports: +0.6% vs. September 2024; Unchanged vs. October 2023.
- Small Business Optimism (October 2024, Index (1986=100), seasonally adjusted): 93.7 (September 2024 91.5; October 2023: 90.7).
- Business Inventories (September 2024, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.587 trillion (+0.1% vs. August 2024; +2.2% vs. September 2023).
- Monthly Treasury Statement (October 2024, Federal Government Budget Deficit): -$257.5 billion (vs. October 2023: -$66.6 billion).
- Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 