The labor market rebounded in September. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending October 4.
Job creation grew at a quicker pace in September. Nonfarm payrolls swelled by a seasonally adjusted 254,000 after adding 144,000 and 149,000 jobs in July and August, respectively. The latter data reflect Bureau of Labor Statistics upward revisions of a combined 72.000. The private sector added 223,000 net jobs (up from 114,000 in August), including 202,000 in the service sector. Industries adding the most jobs were leisure/hospitality (+78,000), health care/social assistance (+71,700), and construction (+25,000). Average weekly earnings of $1,209.31 were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier.
A separate household survey shows that the unemployment rate slipped 1/10th of a percentage point to 4.1 percent. 150,000 people entered the labor force, keeping the labor force participation rate at 62.7 percent. The 25-54 labor force participation rate edged down 1/10th of a percentage point to a near-record high of 83.8 percent. The typical length of unemployment was 9.9 weeks, up a half week from August. 4.624 million workers had a part-time job due to economic reasons (e.g., slack work/business conditions, could only find part-time work), down 206,000 from the previous month. The broadest measures of labor underutilization—the U-6 series—declined by 2/10ths of a percentage point to 7.7 percent.
The number of unfilled jobs increased in August. There were a seasonally adjusted 8.040 million job openings as August ended, up 329,000 for the month but down 14.1 percent from a year earlier. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that there were 7.066 million unfilled jobs in the private sector, including more than a million opportunities in trade/transportation/utilities, professional/business services, health care/social assistance, and accommodation/food services. Employers hired 5.317 million workers, down 99,000 from July and 9.7 percent a year earlier. The private sector was responsible for 4.970 million of the hires. Job separations declined 317,000 to 4.997 million, 10.9 percent below year-ago levels. The number of people quitting their jobs fell by 159,000 to 3.084 million (-14.2 percent versus August 2023), while layoffs slipped by 105,000 to 1.608 million (-3.4 percent versus August 2023).
Factory orders slipped in August. New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $590.4 billion. Over the first eight months of this year, the Census Bureau measured totaled $4.644 trillion, up a modest 0.3 percent over the comparable 2023 months. Durable goods orders were unchanged during the month, while those of nondurables declined 0.5 percent. Civilian, nonaircaft capital goods orders—a proxy of business investment—edged up 0.3 percent. Factory goods shipments fell 0.5 percent to $590.1 billion. Shipments have totaled $4.689 trillion so far this year, up 1.7 percent over the comparable 2023 months. Unfilled orders grew 0.4 percent to $1.391 trillion, while inventories expanded 0.1 percent to $860.2 billion.
Manufacturing activity remained weak in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI held steady at 47.2, its sixth straight month below 50 (and therefore indicating a contracting manufacturing sector). Measures for new orders and production improved, while those for employment and inventories declined. Only five of 18 tracked manufacturing industries expanded in August, led by petroleum/coal products, food/beverage, and textile mills. The press release blames “subdued” demand on “federal monetary policy” and “election uncertainty.”
The service sector enjoyed accelerating growth in August. The ISM’s Services PMI added 3.4 points to a seasonally adjusted 54.9. This was the Services PMI’s best reading since February 2023 and the 49th time in 52 months above the expansion/contraction threshold of 50. Indices for business activity/production, new orders, and inventories improved while the employment measures contracted. Twelve of 17 service sector industries reported expansion, led by real estate, management of companies/support services, and accommodation/food services. The press release notes that the labor market (costs and availability of workers) “continued to be a concern.”
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending September 28, 2024, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 225,000, +6,000 vs. the previous week, +9,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 224,250 (+3.6% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Vehicle Sales (September 2024, Automobiles and Light Trucks, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): 15.775 million (+3.3% vs. August 2024; +0.5% vs. September 2023).
- Construction Spending (August 2024, Value of Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annualized rate): $2.132 trillion (-0.1% vs. July 2024; +4.1% vs. August 2023).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 