Housing had a modest rebound mid-summer. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending August 23.
Existing home sales had a small bump in July. The National Association of Realtors reports sales of previously owned homes increased 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 3.95 million homes. Sales were 2.5 percent below year-ago levels. Sales grew in three of four Census regions during the month, with sales steady in the Midwest. Compared to a year earlier, sales were up in the Northeast (+2.1 percent) and West (+1.4 percent) but down in the Midwest (-5.2 percent) and South (-3.8 percent). Inventories of unsold homes were up 19.8 percent from a year earlier to 1.330 million units (0.8 percent versus June 2024 and the equivalent of a 4.0-month supply). The median sales price of $422,600 was up 4.2 percent from a year earlier.
New home sales surged in July. Sales of new single-family homes jumped 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 739,000 units. The increase put the Census Bureau measure 5.6 percent ahead of year-ago levels and at its highest point since May 2023. Sales improved on a month-to-month and year-to-year basis in all four Census regions. The number of unsold new homes declined 1.1 percent to 462,000 units, up 8.2 percent from a year earlier and the equivalent of a 7.5-month supply. The median sales price of $429,800 was off 1.4 percent from a year earlier.
The U.S. economy experienced tepid growth in July. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFANI) lost 25 basis points to -0.34 (its lowest reading since January). A negative CFNAI reading above -0.70 indicates below-average economic growth. Only 28 of 85 CFNAI components contributed positively to the index, with the other 57 measures acting as drags. Three of the four major component categories contributed negatively: production, employment, and sales/orders/inventories. Personal consumption/housing components made a modest positive contribution. The CFNAI’s three-month moving average held steady at -0.06.
Forward-looking economic measures fell again in July. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted 100.4 (2016=100). The LEI has declined 2.1 percent over the past six months (an improvement over the 3.1 percent decline over the prior six-month period). Only four of ten LEI components made positive contributions to the index, including stock prices, new orders for consumer goods, and new orders for civilian nonaircraft capital goods. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) was unchanged at 112.5, leaving the measure up 0.9 percent over the past six months. Three of four CEI components made positive contributions: personal income, manufacturing/trade sales, and nonfarm payrolls. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) slipped 0.1 percent to 119.6 (+0.6 percent over the past six months). The Conference Board anticipates slow economic growth in Q3 (+0.6 percent annualized) and Q4 (+1.0 percent).
Jobless claims held steady in mid-August. First-time claims made for unemployment insurance increased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 during the week ending August 17. The Department of Labor measure was down 3.7 percent from a year earlier. The four-week moving average of first-time claims inched down by 750 to 236,000 (-4.4 percent versus August 2023). 1.907 million people were receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending August 3, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 