Headline price measures were above their two-percent targets in April. Here are the five things we learned from U.S. economic data released during the week ending May 17.
Shelter and gasoline drove consumer prices up in April. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent, following consecutive 0.4 percent jumps during the prior two months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report notes that shelter services (+0.4 percent) and gasoline (+2.7 percent) were responsible for more than 70 percent of the price rise. Energy CPI was up 1.1 percent, while food prices held steady. Net of both, core CPI increased 0.3 percent. Rising were prices for apparel (+1.2 percent), transportation services (+0.9 percent), and medical commodities (+0.4 percent) and services (+0.4 percent). Prices declined for new (-0.4 percent) and used (-1.4 percent) vehicles. Headline CPI has risen 3.4 percent over the past year, with a 12-month comparable of +3.6 percent for core CPI.
Wholesale prices rose in April. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ core wholesale price measure, which removes energy (+2.0 percent), food (-0.7 percent), and trade services (+0.8 percent). Goods PPI was up 0.4 percent, with core goods prices (net of energy and food) rising 0.3 percent. Services PPI swelled 0.6 percent, even as PPI for transportation and warehousing was off 0.6 percent. Headline and core PPI have increased 2.2 percent and 3.1 percent over the past year. Both measures’ 12-month comparables are at their highest point since April 2023.
Retail sales paused in April. Retail and food services sales were at a seasonally adjusted $705.2 billion, matching March levels and up 3.0 percent from a year earlier. Net of sales at gas stations (+3.0 percent) and auto dealers/parts stores (-0.8 percent), core retail sales slipped 0.1 percent in April and were up 3.5 percent from April 2023. The Census Bureau report finds sales improved at retailers focused on apparel (+1.6 percent), electronics/appliances (+1.5 percent), groceries (+0.6 percent), and building materials (+0.5 percent). Restaurants and bars reported a 0.2 percent sales increase. Sales fell at sporting goods/hobby stores (-0.9 percent), health/personal care retailers (-0.6 percent), and furniture stores (-0.5 percent).
Manufacturing output modestly slowed in April. Manufacturing output slipped a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent, following 1.4 percent and 0.2 percent gains for the Federal Reserve measure in February and March. Durable (-0.5 percent) and nondurable (-0.1 percent) goods output both declined. Overall industrial production held steady during the month, following 0.8 percent and 0.1 percent increases during the two prior months. Mining output dropped 0.6 percent, while that at utilities rose 2.8 percent. Compared to a year earlier, manufacturing output was off 0.5 percent and industrial production was down 1.0 percent. Manufacturing capacity utilization of 76.9 percent was below its 52-year average of 78.2 percent.
Housing starts picked up in April. The Census Bureau reports housing starts grew 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.360 million units. Even with the increase, starts were 0.6 percent below their year-ago pace. Multi-family starts surged 31.4 percent to an annualized 322,000 units, while those of single-family homes slowed 0.4 percent to 1.031 million units. Looking towards the future, the issued building permits declined 3.0 percent to an annualized 1.485 million (-2.0 percent versus April 2024). Completions jumped 8.6 percent to an annualized 1.495 million homes. Completions were 14.6 percent ahead of their year-ago pace.
Other U.S. economic data released over the past week:
- Jobless Claims (Week ending May 11, 2024, First-Time Claims, seasonally adjusted): 222,000, -10,000 vs. the previous week, -3,000 vs. the same week a year earlier). 4-week moving average: 217,750 (-0.2% vs. the same week a year earlier).
- Import Prices (April 2024, All Imports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.9% vs. March 2024; +1.1% vs. April 2023. Nonfuel Imports: +0.7% vs. March 2024; +0.9% vs. April 2023.
- Export Prices (April 2024, All Exports, not seasonally adjusted): +0.5% vs. March 2024; -1.0% vs. April 2023. Nonfuel Imports: +0.7% vs. March 2024; +0.1% vs. April 2023.
- Housing Market Index (May 2024, Index (>50 = More Homebuilders View Housing Market As
“Good” than “Poor”), seasonally adjusted: 45 (April 2024: 51; May 2023: 50) - State Employment (April 2024, Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted): Increased in 6 states and unchanged in 44 states and the District of Columbia vs. March 2024. Increased in 31 states and unchanged in 19 states and the District of Columbia vs. April 2023.
- Small Business Optimism (April 2024, Index (1986=100), seasonally adjusted): 89.7 (March 2024: 88.5; April 2023: 89.0).
- Business Inventories (March 2024, Manufacturers’ and Trade Inventories, seasonally adjusted): $2.539 trillion (-0.1% vs. February 2024; +0.7% vs. March 2023).
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What We Learned About the U.S. Economy Last Week 